Registan.net

The Columbia Journalism Review kindly ran another essay of mine, this time looking at the latest hype over poppies.

The very simple fact underscoring the difficulties of curtailing opium cultivation in Afghanistan is that, put simply, opium is the local economy in many areas of the country. Because USAID can’t provide direct cereal crop assistance to other countries, it also can’t give farmers realistic alternatives to growing poppies. The money is simply too attractive. Similarly, almost no other crop, including cereal crops or fruits or other cash crops, has an industry willing to front the capital necessary for large-scale cultivation—making poppy one of the only financial options for cash-strapped farmers.

As always, comments are welcome.

No author on this site will ever argue that Central Asia is critically ignored by people who really should know better. But it is rare any of us would also look at Central Asian economies (and Caucasian economies) and think: this is a safe, healthy way to invest in a promising region and get a great return. Alisher Djumanov would disagree:

Djumanov says those seeking “strong economic fundamentals'’ will find them in Central Asia and the Caucasus, where seven of the 20 fastest-growing economies are located.

Much of that growth reflects the region’s endowment of vast natural resources. Its riches are in great demand among nations including the so-called BRICs — Brazil, Russia, India and China. That, Djumanov argues, bodes well for Eurasian stocks.

“Economies in the region are set to continue to grow rapidly in coming years,'’ he says.

He’s on to something, to be sure. Both Georgia and Azerbaijan have received awards for being reformers, and Kazakhstan’s economy—despite pressure on its banking sector—has been performing adequately. Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, however, are puzzling choices for investment: the business environments are highly corrupt, and growth potential is almost nil given the current political leadership.

So why would Djumanov be advocating this kind of investment? His company—Singapore-based Eurasia Capital Management—has about $200 million in investments across the region. He has a vested interest in selling its benefits to other investors.

But I have a deeper question: Why is William Pesek, a Bloomberg columnist, writing an entire essay based solely on talking with a single investor? It is nothing more than free advertising for ECM. That is a curious decision for a journalist to make. ECM was a co-sponsor of a recent event in Ulaan Baatar, and one of the main panels featured Pesek interviewing Djumanov in front of the assembled guests. Is that all this is? Pesek got a free trip, so he offered up column space? Who knows. But it doesn’t sit well with me.

Via Matt: Going all the way back at least to 2000, it has been common knowledge that Pakistan supported Islamic militants to throw off Indian control of Kashmir. It was why they didn’t ever crack down too harshly on the MMA, why Lashkar-e Toiba has flourished, and why the Taliban found a willing partner in the ISI. So when Bhutto-widower Zardari comes right out and proclaims that India poses no threat to Pakistan and the U.S. has permission to bomb its territory, what exactly is going on?

Read more »

In about 10 days, Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan, will play host once again to the 4th International Uzbek Cotton Fair. Featuring round table discussions and a series of presentations on the world cotton market, the Cotton Fair is Uzbekistan’s attempt to put the brightest face possible on its Cotton Exports. According to the official literature, the Fair is seen as the “basis for the mutually beneficial cooperation between the participants of the world cotton and textile industry.” In other words, a chance for the buyers of cotton to descend on Tashkent and be feted by a government enriched by “white gold.” I’m curious as to whether certain news items in the cotton industry will come up.
Read more »

Did you know the one thing missing from Southern Afghanistan was an increased focus on eradicating poppies? U.S. Army Gen. John Craddock, Supreme Allied Commander of NATO forces in Europe, certainly thinks so… after a whopping three day visit.

Of course, eradication does nothing to combat the reasons behind opium. The insurgency does not exist because of opium, it exists because of local conditions the Taliban exploit—opium cultivation is just a second-order indicator of how well the Taliban is exploiting those conditions.

Previously, we discussed the idiocy of eradication, and how there are established precedents for why going after opium itself is counterproductive to the overall goal of reducing cultivation. And also, why the Marines have been smart to ignore opium in their deployment to Helmand (which has shown terrific promise, if only a successful unit would stick around long enough to capitalize on that promise).

If you were reading a story about how this trifecta of warlords was somehow collaborating to make life miserable in Afghanistan, wouldn’t you want to know who they were before the seventh paragraph? Greg Miller of the L.A. Times would disagree. Similarly, despite their description together, as if they collaborate, it takes until paragraph eight for Miller to let us know U.S. officials don’t think Mullah Mohammed Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and Jalaluddin Haqqani are collaborating in any real way (though I think Antonio Guistozzi would disagree), and paragraph nine for us to learn that they have nothing to do with the violence in Pakistan, despite their basing there.

And here I went thinking that in newspaper journalism the most important bits of a story should be in the first paragraph or two. Shows you how much I know.

Previous terrible writing at the L.A. Times can be found here and here.

Arif Rafiq reports that Baitullah Mehsud is dead, apparently of natural causes (Bill Roggio says his sources disagree, claiming it’s misinformation). If true, this leaves the Pakistani Taliban umbrella organization with a big hole at its top, though its ranks remain fully staffed with Pakistanis angry at American attacks in their territory.

Luckily, those raids look set to stop, at least for now. Word on the street is that this is meant to give the Pakistani Army more space to do its own job its own way—something we’ve been advocating for some time now. Especially damning is the unexpected backlash—not on the street, where it matters, but diplomatically. The Army did not expect the civilian government to react as strongly as it did.

Ironically perhaps, conditions in the FATA seem to be marginally improving, in the sense of there being concrete action against the militants, and a new head of the ISI. While that of course doesn’t mean much (institutionally it still has a lot of challenges to work out), it does mean that Pakistan is showing a lot of promise—more so than it has shown for the past year. The U.S. would do well to stay out of it as best it can.

Update: It seems Baitullah Mehsud is very much alive, and Roggio’s contacts were right to voice skepticism of the claims of his death. Rafiq has yet to update his post. But the comments about his succession remain. Is there a clear leader to replace him, now that his mortality has been highlighted?