Central Asia is convenient term, but what does it mean? For Registan.net, it often stretches south to include Afghanistan, east to include Xinjiang, and north to include Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan might seem a natural inclusion, but in the Soviet Union it was considered apart, and maps that included it were generally labeled “Kazakhstan and Central Asia.” [Казахстан и Средная Aзия]
Still, the five former Union Republics of the Soviet Union that make up most of Turkistan [Түркiстан in Kazakh] have a lot in common. And yet, like siblings close in age they are perennially at odds, and only united by powers from without.
There is an excellent article on this meme as it manifested most recently within the SCO over at RFE/RL. The SCO and the accompanying CSTO have been on rocky ground for the past several years, though neither was originally a strong organization.
The states of Central Asia have been known to frequently tout their close relations though pledges of eternal friendship. And, aside from Turkmenistan, they take part in regional groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Collection Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
They are both attempts to form unity in a region torn apart by individualistic and opportunistic exploitations run by governments wholly entwined in national business interests. There is a similar story focusing on the Uzbekistan/USA/CSTO relationship over at the Asia Times. Here’s an excerpt, but read the whole thing:
Unsurprisingly, Moscow has prioritized its ties with Bishkek and Dushanbe. Although Uzbekistan is a much bigger country, from the perspective of the Afghan problem (and regional security), Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are vital assets. A base in southern Kyrgyzstan enables Moscow to hold the region’s jugular veins, apart from insulating Bishkek and Dushanbe from their Uzbek Big Brother. Kazakhstan has acquiesced with the Russian move.
Reuters via the New York Times chimes in as well, pointing out that the thaw between the USA and Uzbekistan has forced Uzbekistan to drift out of Moscow’s sphere of influence. This offers the beginning of an explanation for Uzbekistan’s harsh criticism of Russia’s planned military build-up of southern Kyrgyzstan. Naturally, Kyrgyzstan is hoping to have some protection from their Uzbek Big Brother, and has responded in kind to Uzbekistan’s protests.
Proof that the issue is more complex than it at first appears, Russia has actually stepped in to placate Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan’s President Bakiev even stressed that the new military installation would not be a ‘base,’ but a training center for anti-terrorism, something useful for the region as a whole. I don’t expect this to convince anyone, and the recent events at Khanabad at the Uzbek/Kyrgyz border are definitely the elephants in the room.
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I think that the Reuter’s comment about US-Uzbek relations “forcing Uzbekistan out of Moscow’s orbit” actually has it backwards. All the evidence/opinions I’ve seen more or less say that Uzbekistan thawed the relations with the US because they felt like the Russia was getting too grabby (which, in fairness to Russia, can mean utterly anything in Tashkent).
I think in general all of these things are very reactionary explanations–not that I’m faulting you, Michael, you’re just rounding up the news in this post. This thing about everything having to be a competition between Russia and the US in CA makes for a compelling coldwar-ish narrative but I don’t think it really affects the choices that these states are making at the end of the day. I don’t believe for a second that the (2nd) base in Krygyzstan wasn’t a Russian condition to accepting the renewal of Manas, and I also don’t think that at the top levels they ever really wanted the US out.
The MSM tends to forget over and over that Russia has a stake in AF too and usually doesn’t push pestering us a little over influence in CA enough to do something that would actually hamper our/NATO efforts there in a serious way.
For my two cents, I think the recent attacks in the Ferghana Valley and Tajikistan remind everyone that they’d really rather keep trouble on the other side of the Amu Darya.
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