Central Asia and the World Financial Crisis

by michaelhancock on 3/7/2009

Greetings, gentle Registanis.  I spotted a couple interesting stories with similar themes.  The theme might best be titled, to borrow from the Daily Show, Clusterf@#$ to the Poor House [Central Asian Edition]  More after the jump.

Bailouts

Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbaev increased the growing Kazakhstan bailout plan, after having already nationalized the major banks and buying controlling shares in others.  I especially appreciate the rhetoric used, sounding rather realistic but not fatalistic, akin to fireside chats with FDR.  The best part about discussing Kazakhstan on this blog is that if I praise Nazarbaev, ‘real’ Kazakhstanis will call me a toady and explain what an evil guy he is, and if I complain about the breadth of his kleptocracy, I’ll be labeled some kind of racist or white imperialist.  In any event, the direct quote from EurasiaNet:

“I want you, my dear compatriots, to know that I realize that we all must face an onslaught at this time,” the Kazakhstan Today news agency quoted Nazarbayev as saying March 6. “Today is difficult, I don’t promise that tomorrow will be easier but a turnaround is inevitable.”

In similar news, Mongolia agreed to an IMF bailout plan, to the tune of $224 million.  What’s most interesting is that the falling price of copper is being blamed for most of the crisis, and I recall last year [before the crash] that the price of copper was so high that some were suggesting Michigan reopen some of its copper mines.  That’s an interesting story in itself, and completely unrelated to Central Asia.

“Mongolia has been hard hit by the global financial crisis through a sudden and precipitous drop in the price of the country’s main export commodities, notably copper. This has had a negative impact on both the fiscal and external accounts,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

After setting a date for expelling the Americans from Manas air base, Krygyz president Bakiev decides to be coy, drop a shoulder suggestively, bat his eyelashes, and give his best come-hither look to the US.  Speaking of kleptocracies… ‘Oh, you know, you guys don’t have to leave…  you just have to say the magic word.’  I think I know the magic word.  It starts with M, is green and fits in wallets, and rhymes with honey

“We are ready for any new proposals from the U.S. government aimed at stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan,” Bakiyev was quoted as saying.

Stark Realities

I saw this great chart at the Economist in an article on the impending collapse of the economies of Easter Europe.  Did you know that Russia ranks pretty low among its neighbors in some seemingly basic economic factors?

Chart from Economist Feb 26th 2009

I’m looking specifically at the GDP per capita, where Russia has a paltry $16,161.  Even so, it is defined as an “Energy based kleptocracy in denial about crisis.”  I think kleptocracy might be my new favorite word. It certainly is descriptive.  In any event, only Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, and Belarus are in worse shape, which I doubt comes as any surprise.  And when you consider Slovenia rocks the Russkis with $28,894 per person, or even that tiny Estonia comes away with $20,754…  It’s one thing to admit that the Baltic states always had it better under the Soviet Union, it’s quite another to see Russia unable to divide its immense wealth after losing its so-called ’soft underbelly’ in Central Asia that was long blamed for soaking up Russian hand-outs and providing little in return.  When you consider that Kazakhstan is nearing $10,000 GDP per capita, it’s interesting to see if, or when, ‘the tables will turn.’

In other news, Tajikistan is either getting friendlier or more desperate.  After meeting with Washington, they are now considering closer ties with Russia, and [wait for it, this is actually kind of shocking---] Uzbekistan.  This follows International Crisis Group’s report in February that Tajikistan is heading for total collapse.

The government runs the risk of social unrest, said the report. “There are few indications that the Rakhmon administration is up to this challenge,” it added.

Ouch.  I don’t think they’ll be expecting any Christmas cards from Rakhmon in the future.

But who has a plan?

You mean, besides everyone in Washington, D.C.?  Well, for one thing, I can think of someone so sure of the worth of his economic plan that he published a book about it.  Again, this might not be who you expect:

Islam Karimov!  That’s right, his newest addition to the Tashkent Times Best Seller’s List* World Financial-Economic Crisis: Ways and Measures to Overcome It in the Conditions of Uzbekistan came out on Friday, March 6th.  Don’t be surprised when Obama sends Mrs. Clinton to Tashkent to pick up a copy.  But, it’s not like Uzbekistan even needs this book, right?

However, despite all emerged problems and difficulties the country has been able to achieve not only stable functioning of economy in 2008, but also ensure its high sustainable growth rates, elaborate the entire complex of measures, and above all, the Anti-crisis program and mechanisms of its implementation.

Queen of UzbekistanThat’s what I thought.  Everything is right as rain, and the good people of Uzbekistan couldn’t be happier if it were raining plov and non.  What’s a little world financial crisis to the folks in Tashkent?  I guess that all depends which folks[good story from last summer] we’re talking about.  What was that word again?  I have a picture in my mind, like, if you wanted to host a concert in a place where loud music damages centuries old architecture, but you do it anyway because you’re the boss…  Kleptocracy, that’s it, that’s right.  Did I mention she’s buying a football club?  I mean, come on – everyone’s doing it!  Why is it that oligarch and kleptocrat don’t rhyme?  They should, you know.  And one last thing — tell me you’ve seen her website.  You’ve seen it, right?  Isn’t it fan-effing-tabulous?  Can I quote, just a little?  Here, then, is your moment of Zen…

It is impossible to disregard, the fact, that the founder of these creative collections is a political scientist whose basic education far, at first sight, from design. Having a Harvard Degree (MA) she has received the degree of a doctor of political sciences. But back to the very beginning.

Gulnara graduated from Tashkent State University and Tashkent University of Information Technologies, Harvard University. Processes of education and self-education are continuous for her as in the field of her primary activity – political-economical researches, as well as in creative hobbies: languages, music, fine arts. Having basic education Gulnara in parallel graduated from the courses in design of jewelry and accessories at New-York FIT.

* Yes, I made that up.

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