Registan.net

Johnny-come-lately turns Johnny-leave-early?

Uzbekistan has decided to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Community.  The EEC is an outgrowth of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] that was founded in 2001 by those countries seemingly closest to Russia, though not necessarily with those aims.  The Kremlin’s ‘circle of trust’ at that time included Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.  Kazakhstan and Belarus both have strong historical ties, not to mention large Russian minorities, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan both have close Russian military and trade connections.  Uzbekistan at the time was playing to the West, and Karimov chose not to join the EEC.

That all changed in 2005 with Andijan and the icy shoulder the US and the West turned to Karimov.  I’m willing to assume that other political changes behind closed doors in Tashkent also influenced the change.  Either way, a rapprochment with Russia became feasible, and the EEC welcomed Uzbekistan in 2006.  Even with Uzbekistan, the EEC wasn’t able to accomplish too many economic policy changes.

That doesn’t stop them from having lofty goals, including:

• Standardization of customs and security guidelines at borders
• Currency exchange regulation and standardization
• Creation of programs for social/economic development
• Common market for transportation
  And the Big One
• The formation of general energy market

However, the Uzbek government is stressing that this is only a suspension of their membership.  Karimov’s complaints, however, cast doubts on how temporary this may be.

According to Uzbek President, the EurAsEC duplicates other organizations such as Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

If I may be allowed some sarcasm:  If there’s one thing Central Asian governments abhor, it’s redundant and inefficient government bureaucracies!

Experts also point out the problem may stem from rivalries in the region.  Uzbekistan’s leadership has yet come to see Kazakhstan as a serious contender for the role of ‘regional power.’  Unfortunately, if Karimov waits too long, Kazakhstan will stop waiting around for Uzbekistan’s open support.  And yet, the Uzbeks are voting with their feet, sending record numbers of migrant laborers to build Kazakhstan’s petro-fueled economy.  Kazakhstan’s economy may have diversified enough to help it weather the coming crisis better than Russia, in my opinion.

Stumble it!