The UN News Service carries this missive from officials in country warning that the situation in Kyrgyzstan is only getting worse. It may yet be a recipe for political mayhem, but it’s certainly setting the stage for an unpredictable amount of [largely preventable] human suffering.
The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that the hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people in Kyrgyzstan include 580,000 people classed as food insecure and 250,000 people at risk because of electricity and water shortages.
Central Asian winters can be extremely harsh, particularly in the mountainous regions of southern Kyrgyzstan, which were also hit early last month by a deadly earthquake.
Eurasianet covers the story of Kyrgyz courts ordering the Canadian mining entity currently at work in the Kumtor mine to back $2.5 million in back taxes. Kumtor is the largest mine currently operating in Kyrgyzstan, and was sold to foreign investors under then-President Askar Akaev in 2004. It was seen as just another move by a corrupt and elitist regime, yet even today there are opposition members and everyday Kyrgyzstani people looking back at 2004 as the ‘good old days.’ Whether or not Centerra, the Candiana mining company, pays the money they owe, I doubt anyone plans on seeing that money coming out to help stave off the coming energy crisis this winter.
But will the coming storm unite the opposition? Despite the press given to the demonstrations in Talas, Gulnara Mambetalieva of the IWPR posits that the opposition has not yet achieved solidarity. Personally, I think a revolution in Kyrgyzstan would be better served by a grass-root movement instead of a top-down change orchestrated by the established opposition. It was the established opposition that got them into the mess they are in now, replacing Akaev with possibly the only man in Kyrgyzstan more shameless in his corruption and nepostism. However, the charismatic personality capable of unifying and leading such a grass-roots movement has yet to emerge. A free press is usually necessary — and Central Asian authoritarianism seems to understand that an unfettered press is a dangerous thing to have around.
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Michael,
I highly recommend Erica Manat’s recent rundown of the dueling opposition groups-
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373550
Karl
Thanks for that link – just got round to reading it. All very interesting. I like the mature attitude taken by Omurbek Tekebayev’s group, though it has to be said he has had his irrational moments in the past.
I think Beknazarov is a bit of a populist and has had a divisive north – south take in the past.
Dealing with this – the ill-feeling between those in the north towards the (ruling?) south – is what is crucial to take Kyrgyzstan forward.
Incidentally, I think that it is clear that widespread corruption in the energy sector has led to many of the current problems. Does anyone have any specific examples of the corruption and has anything been published stating names etc. By specific I mean items that exclude mentioning that the – now sacked – Energy Minister is to blame.
Rakmat Kuda