Registan.net

That’s the Gospel of Mark, and I think it will help me discuss the latest talking point from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, dealing as it does with the alphabet soup of international and supranational organizations. And, for the first but not last time, my studies have caught up with my blogging! This week’s assignment in my course on Post-Soviet Central Asia in Transition included a call to see reactions across the board of Central Asia to the recent Georgian crises. Don’t worry, though - this isn’t my homework. For starters, I think you’re supposed to avoid the personal pronouns in academia.

Below the jump you’ll find my take on Russia’s recent moves in political coordination as they try to maneuver their next step in the crises throughout Transcaucasia. Corrections welcome!

I cited, a few days ago, a similar story relating to Russia finding itself alone in its condemnation of Georgia and its proclamation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence. As an aside, Russia calling South Ossetia independent means less when South Ossetia is asking to join North Ossetia as part of the Russian Federation. You might think it would make Russia nervous to have a de facto state like South Ossetia join up, seeing as how they’ve shown their willingness to seek independence. And you’d be right - Russia will be building military bases [plural, yes, by their own admission]. This comes at the same time as the EU asking for an international probe to find out, basically, just who started this whole mess in the first place. To that I say, Good luck! It’s certainly well-intentioned. Besides looking into the history of the present crisis, they will also be asking the hard questions - who did what to whom - during the 5-day war. Accusations of abuses of human rights are flying from all sides, and this probe is being designed to find answers. The OSCE is likewise sending a fact-finding mission.

With all of this uncertainty going on, Russia is showing a brave face. After its dismal showing at the SCO summit in Dushanbe, with China not wanting to back a precedent of supporting separatist Muslim states in the periphery [cough, Xinjiang, cough], Russia has retreated back to its clubhouse. You might know it as the CSTO - or you might not know it at all, more likely. The CSTO was an attempt a few years ago to strengthen the CIS among those states still friendly with Russia and Russia’s military. I think the latest story about the CSTO was the agreement of building a military base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan, [blast from the past, that story is from 2003] just down the road from the US/NATO base. Belarus’s president had commented that they would hopefully serve to deter further NATO enlargement, while Putin played politically and said it was more to “deter religious extremism and the narcotics trade.”

Well, with the failure to get the SCO to back its play, Russia has fallen back on the CSTO. Medvedev, along with accusing NATO and the West with treating the Black Sea like an area within their sphere of influence, has reported that the leadership of the countries in the CSTO have condemned Georgia and its acts of aggression.

Just who is the CSTO? Glad you asked! Here’s the 15-second roundup. It’s an offshoot of the CIS, as I mentioned. The Commonwealth of Independent States [or CWS to some] formed in Minsk as the USSR was sliding into the tar pits of history. Planned as the USSR successor state by its founding members Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, it later grew to include 11 of the former Soviet republics. Georgia made headlines recently on its withdrawal, which will become final on August 17th, 2009, per the CIS charter, one year following the announcement of withdrawal. During the past 15+ years, the CIS has had a lot of problems agreeing on major goals and how to achieve those goals. In an effort to get more done and to consolidate control, in 2002 the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Russia wrote up the Collective Security Treaty in Moldova [not itself a signer of the Treaty]. This was a reforming of a prior CIS institution, of which Azerbaijan and Georgia were also a part, but had left in 1999.

In time the signing members added an “O” to the CST, making the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Or, if you prefer the Russian, and who wouldn’t? Организация Договора о Коллективной Безопасности (ОДКБ).

For various reasons, each of these countries had more ties to Russia and its military than their non-member neighbors. Tajikistan has border issues with Afghanistan, Armenia needs Russia’s continued support to maintain the annexation of Nagorno-Karabagh, Kazakhstan has its own Canada/US-comparable border with Russia to keep them Kremlin-bound, and Belarus has been in Kremlin’s lap from the get-go. Uzbekistan has been both cold and hot on Russian military relations, though warmer now since the 2005 Andijan crisis pushed them away from the West.

The question, to me at least, is what really makes these countries line up behind Russia on this issue? At least some of the CSTO member states have their own worries regarding Russia, regarding separatists, and regarding the fine line between Western and Russian relations. My question to you is - does it have to be a zero sum game? Does closeness with West negate cooperation with Moscow? Kyrgyzstan currently plays host to both, for example, not that they are being held up as an example of international cooperation and peace keeping… yet, anyway.

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