The emerging role of propaganda in the Russo-Georgian War is one of my new-found favorite topics. And for contributing to its discussion, David Axe deserves a big high five. In a triplet of posts, he lays out in meticulous detail one of the may ways Georgia and its president, Mikheil Saakashvili, engaged in a rather sophisticated IO campaign against the West. To summarize all three?
If Tbilisi indeed staged weeks early for a war with Russia, it raises the question of what went wrong. Did Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili honestly believe his tiny country stood a chance against Russia?
Gordon Hahn of the Monterey Institute of International Studies offers what he believes is key insight into Saakashvili’s miscalculation. The Georgian president, Hahn claims, counted on a massive propaganda effort to draw the West into the war. “Saakasahvili and his ministers made numerous statements in their effort to convince the West that it was obliged to defend Tbilisi from Russia’s incursion.” …
“American support for Georgia in the present crisis is based in part on the belief that Russia is to be blame for instigating this war,” Hahn concludes. “Much of this belief is founded on Saakashvili’s and other Georgian officials’ statements to American officials.”
Statements that, if you believe Hahn, are mostly untrue…
American support for Georgia in the present crisis is based in part on the belief that Russia is to be blame for instigating this war. Much of this belief is founded on Saakashvili’s and other Geoergian officials’ statements to American officials like the State Department’s Matthew Bryza. Western publics and decisionmakers should not take the statements of Georgian officials regarding this war or much of anything else at face value. They should think twice and then thrice about whether backing President Saakashvili, his aspirations for Georgian membership in NATO, and the resulting ‘hot peace’ with Moscow are in the West’s interests.
Bingo. All three posts are worth reading in full.
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Hahn’s analysis consists of:
(1) Pose conflicting Georgian and Russian positions.
(2) Find a news source that contradicts the Georgian position.
(3) Conclude that the Russian position is correct.
(4) Lather, rinse, repeat.
The events of early August are murky enough that I could easily turn around step 2 and come to the entirely opposite conclusions. Hahn’s tendentious analysis is hardly the last word, unless you really, really want it to be.
Kulick: Id be interested in seeing a news-source that supports the Georgian new and revised approach that it was responding to Russian agression and had to shell Sishkavili in order to get through the town to enagage the approaching russian armour columns? By news-sources I mean sources from that time, not later Georgian explanations..
“Meticulous” is not a term that springs to mind after reading David Axe’s reprint of Gordon Hahn’s version of events. The comments to Axe’s post provide particulars.
fnord’s point about the military logic of shelling and then occupying Tskhinvali is well-taken. Morality aside, if the Georgians’ goal was to block an advance of Russian armor down route P-2 from the Roki Tunnel, their priorities make no apparent sense. There’s been lots of spinning, but little in the way of detailed and credible explanations from the Georgian side.
These interviews of Georgian occupiers of Tskhinvali recounting their “surprise” at the deadly appearance of Russian tanks and planes also strongly suggest that the Georgian thrust was not undertaken as a military counter to movements of Russian armor.
An important article in yesterday’s NYT, Georgia Eager to Rebuild Its Defeated Armed Forces. To me, the article shows that:
* Georgia’s young and reckless leaders have no understanding of the causes of their defeat by Russia. (“Georgia’s own analysis is straightforward: its principal vulnerabilities… were its comparative weakness to Russian air power and its inability to communicate effectively in combat.”)
* The leadership has no intention of performing an after-action review that would offer insights into the disasterous crisis-management process of August 7. An effective review would highlight the critical-path choices that led to defeat… and identify who made those decisions.
* Georgia’s military intends to begin an extensive re-armament and expansion to give it both offensive and defensive capabilities. The focus is on advanced weaponry. There is no awareness that the country needs to replace the just-failed strategy with one that is better suited to Georgia’s geographic, geopolitical, and ethnic realities.
* Georgia’s leaders are looking to the U.S. to support and fund its increased defense spending.
A revealing quote: “Mr. Saakashvili and his advisers also say that even though he has no tactical military experience, he was at one time personally directing important elements of the battle — giving orders over a cellphone and deciding when to move a brigade from western to central Georgia to face the advancing Russian columns.”
From the Whom the Gods Would Destroy file:
International Crisis Group, Georgia-South Ossetia…, 4-15-05, ft. 5:
War rhetoric has increased in the past weeks in Georgia. The chairman of the committee on defense and security of the parliament, Givi Targamadze, said on 12 April 2005, “Today the Georgian army can establish control over the whole territory of South Ossetia in three-four days.” ….A few days earlier,…minister of state for European intergration, Giorgi Baramidge, stated “I urge everyone to join in the Georgian army, defend Georgia, join the people who are ready to spill blood for the motherland. This time has come.”
Kommersant, Georgia Urges Russia…, 10-5-06:
Georgia tries to show that it is ready for any developments, including military confrontation. “Not a single Russian unit comes close to our troops in terms of armaments and procurements,” Givi Targamadze, head of the security and defense committee at the Georgia parliament, told Kommersant.
Reuters UK, 6-4-08, Christain Lowe:
In a report…the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said Tbilisi shared the blame for a sharp escalation in tensions this year.
“Hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option,” said the report, which drew on interviews with diplomats and officials in the region.
Telegraph, David Kunin Interview, Kate Weinberg, 8-23-08:
If Mr. Saakashvili is winning the propaganda war against the Kremlin, David Kunin is his general….But did the confidence in his pro-West PR campaign create so much confidence that it caused Mr. Saakashvili to overreach himself….?
“It wasn’t a case of over-estimating ourselves, but a case of under-estimating Russia,” he says.
I think Georgians should not give up rebuilding their army. As far as I understood from media coverage, mainly russian, the Georgian army was more advanced than Russian. It showed that Georgians were able to easily overcome S. Ossetian resistance.
While Russian Army still fought as it did during WWII: assaults using large quatity of personnel and tanks with lack of communication between different braches and reconnaisance, Georgians tryed to use new weaponry and tactics taught by American instructors. Although of course, Saakashvili giving orders to his troops over the cell phone was odd.
I think Georgians were not able to win, because Russians simply outnumbered them and Georgians did not have time to organize deffensive in just taken grounds.
History shows that it takes an awfully lot of time to Russians learn their military lessons and reform their tactics and military organizations. Russian army logistics and communication have always sucked, they use same princimples in war as they did 300 years ago.
But there is a chance for Geogians to learn their lessons and modernize their army – it is not that hard accounting for the urgent need, their small number and support from the US.
Oldschoolboy: First of all, i think you underestimate Russias capacity. As far as I can read out of the combat reports, there was very little use of serious artillery, strategic bombers, cruise missiles and other shock and awe weapons. The russian response took the form of a limited expeditionary force, and it scared the Georgians so bad that they ran right past Gori discarding their ammo, according to sources ( I can hunt them up if required). From reports, it seems that the Georgian forces were not expecting the russian counterthrust, and broke under pressure. Pure and simply broke. Also, remember this was a beta test for the new combined arms operation of the new & restored Russian army, they will surely have learned lessons next time. Face it, short of a nuclear deterrent there is no way in hell the west can protect Georgia militarily.
The arguments against the west re-arming Georgia to top-western standard are many, especially the geopolitical aspect leaps to mind. If the US decides to sell top-level AA missiles to Georgia, what is to stop Russia doing the same to Iran/Hezbollah/N. Korea? And if this really gets down to serious Russia/US trouble, what is stopping the russians from releasing manpads to the afghan scenario, just like the US did with Stingers when the soviets were there? Dont fall into the easy trap and think Putin is a puppet dictator, he is quite keen for a new cold war because it will release him from all this humanitarian shit he has to put up with these days. And he is not a stupid dictator, but has 70% support for real, not just as a proaganda ploy.
It seems even Georgians are acknowledging the Georgian propaganda. This article ran recently in Civil.ge.
“Extensive propaganda is currently underway, blaming the catastrophic consequences [of the conflict] on everyone – an aggressive Russia, an ignorant West (which, it is claimed, ignored the Georgian leaders’ warnings); the opposition; Russian spies, etc. – everyone, but not the authorities themselves,” the letter reads.
Then it lists some questions, which the signatories say, should be answered by the authorities, including, why it happened that the Georgian side “despite the U.S. administration’s warnings, fell into the Russian trap.”
The letter blames the Georgian authorities for “the catastrophic consequences” and says that “the authorities, which have in fact prepared the ground for these consequences through its non-professionalism and anti-democracy, are now claiming that what has happened was impossible to prevent.”
Here are another couple good excerpts:
[Targamadze, head of Christian-Democratic Party] also said that Russia had been gradually preparing the ground for an invasion of Georgia, but he also partially put the blame on the Georgian authorities, saying that their rhetoric and policies had been “designed to finally reintegrate the Tskhinvali region into Georgia by using force.” Targamadze added that it was now “hard to prove that Georgia didn’t start the war.”
“It seems to me that Saakashvili was misled by someone telling him that the Russians would not intervene in Tskhinvali on condition that we would stop our active measures in respect of Abkhazia,” he told the daily Rezonansi. “That is my impression, because otherwise it is unclear how it was possible to fall into this trap if there were no guarantees that the Russians would not intervene.”
Not to wax mawkishly sentimental, but is our interest in thwarting Russia really so compelling as to justify forcing the South Ossetians to submit to the Georgians?
Human Rights in Georgia, February-March 2000, South Caucasian Human Rights Monitor, Part 3:
Discrimination on ethnic grounds:
Zoya Kodalova is one of the seven teachers of Secondary School No. 1 of the Town of Kareli…who were fired for “being of Ossetian origins and having an Ossetian family” on 4 March, 1991….
fnord, that is what I am saying: russians did not use any fancy weapon only because they rely on their 500-year-old tactics, press with the number of personnel and tanks. If russians were smart fighters, they would not have to lose 70 soldiers dead and 250 wounded within only 2-3 days campaign. This 300 man loss does not seem like a limited expeditionary force. As far as I know there is NO new & restored Russian Army. There is old and inefficient Russian Army, the remnant of much degraded Soviet Army. I will not bother with reference to websites (there are plenty), but despite all the bolstery, Russian Army was not getting enough weaponry and ammunition to replace worn and disabled equipment since the collapse of Soviet Union. If you study history, Russian military has always suffered from lack of communication, logistic and modernization. The only way to reach victory was to outnumber the enemy. As one of great russian generals stated “it is not generals who wins wars for Russia, it is russian women giving birth to more soldiers” meaning that only numbers of soldiers was the main factor of military success. Unfortunately for russian warmongers, russian women do not seem to agree any more to produce cannon fodder as they used to.
If you think that Russia can really stand up to another confrontation with the USA, let me remind you that they already tryed. Russians were selling weapons to China, Korea, Nikaragua, Cuba, etc to be used against the USA and NATO, however, they lost that war when they were much stronger than now. What makes you think that they will have enough guts to try to do it again? Besides, arming Iran, Hesbollah or North Korea will backfire against Russia itself. Do you think muslim radicals love Russia? Did you know that during Chechnya wars chechen rebels were using weapons that Russia had previously sold to some Mid-Eastern countries? Believe me, if, God forbid, there is a Global War between Muslim World and the West, Russia will be the first victim of it.
And I guess nobody can tell Georgians not to arm themselves.
Guys, these are great comments. I’m following up on some of this. Thank you!
Oldschoolboy: Interesting and rational points, compliments. However, i tend to disagree with you. It seems clear to me that using strategic bombers and cruise missiles, they could have leveled Tblisi and/or Gori to the ground, just as they could have done a gradual artillery-covered approach instead of a armor blitz. Given the airsuperiority of the russians, they could have sat back and deployed the 37th Air Army and whistled while Georgia became a small black spot on the ground. SO I think it is safe from a military pov to say that Russia deployed a RRF (Rapid Reaction Force) and did not go in to crush Georgia decisively.
On the point of the Russian forces being oldfashioned, absolutely, to a certain extent. There has been a large overhaul going on the last three years, especially in the airforce and the navy but also in the army itself. The combined arms movement in Georgia run pretty smoothly, loosing only 70 men in a blitz against US trained and Israeli armed regular forces in defensive positions does not seem like a big loss to me at all, rather it suggests a overwhelming win. The fact that the georgians paniced so totally that they didnt even bother to defend their staging area, Gori, is another indicator that the russians didnt even have to try, except for at the initial impact. To speculate: The georgians present the loss of a elite unit to the last man at a unidentified bridge north of Sishkavili, one could assume that this was initial contact and that many of the losses may have occured there.
I dont think the russkies could go one on one against the US forces, and fortunately they wont have to because the US is currently overdeployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that the Pakistanis are seizing up, there is a very real possibility that the US will collapse in Afghanistan due to logistic choking, something the russians can take part of. If you doubt the guts of Vladimir Putin I think you are in for a surprise. Israel acknowledged this power by stopping arms-sales to Georgia well in advance of the war. And as usual, there is a failure to differentiate between muslims and muslims: The Kaukasian AQ are a problem for russia, sure, as are the chechens. Iran, on the other hand are close allies and so are Hezbollah. Shia – Sunni. Or even Wahabbi – Sufi, if you please. I think V. Putin may be very interested in payback for the Afghan wars, wouldnt you if the boots were on the other foot?
Fortunately, despite all the bravery that is supposed to work on image of a tough man for the russian people, Putin with his man-boobs is not that stupid to piss against the wind.
If Medvedev and Putin have leveld Tbilisi, it would be their suicide. Russians support their presidents now, but do you think they would like to live again behind the Iron Curtain in a Gulag-like military campground surronded by enemies with food distributed on food cards? I do not think so.
Look, for centuries russians were superior military power mostly due to their great number. In 19th and 20th centruries russians were one of the most numerous nations in the World. Unfortunately, all this potential was lost in numerous conflicts with neighbors. Now russian population is declining with a faster rate than European population. Soon there will not be enough young men to serve in Army. So, the best strategy for Russia now is to seek peace with its neighbors.
As for muslim radicals, believe me, I know them and I know Chechens, Ingushs and Dagestanys well enough (I have some close friends) to tell you that regardsless whether thoese radicals are shii or sunny, russians for them are as bad and dirty as any other infidel. And if America is behind the Oceans, russians do not have such geographic indulgence and keeping those muslim radicals quiet is in the best interests of Russia. Russians must be least interested in Western failure in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Oldschoolboy: “If Medvedev and Putin have leveld Tbilisi, it would be their suicide. ”
Your premise seems to me at fault, you underestimate the russian nationalism. Nobody wept for Groznyj and the following ethnic cleansing of the Chechen homelands. Russia *chose* not to go allout on Georgia due to the implications abroad, but if they had gone all medieval I think very few Russians would have protested. Anyway, the point was that for the US to start rebuilding the Georgian armed forces again seems like throwing money out the window, because at the point where Georgia is approaching a level of threat to the russians, they will move in again.
As for the muslim threat, sure enough the problems in Ingushetia etc. are real for Russia. The point you do not see is that Iran, Pakistan etc. are also fighting the wahabi extremists. So supporting Iran is not equal to suporting the AQ elements that dream of the Caliphate, quite the opposite.
I agree that the best long term strategy for Russia is to seek peace, however, due to economical reasons. If they want to have a sustainable economy they must get their production levels up, start renewing their industry, etc. This is the carrot the west should offer the russians. But by arming Georgia, we are playing up to the very strong russian nationalism, giving them the choice between honour and money. I dont think Russia will choose money if forced to choose, rather they will turn towards China and be lost to the west.
As far as I can tell, David Axe has not responded to any of the substantial criticisms of Gordon Hahn’s talking points that have been made in the comments to his “meticulous detail” post. Axe and Haupt seem to value their story line, irrespective of what a balanced evaluation of the evidence might show. This is disappointing, albeit common.
Why is it so hard for people to understand there was no miscalculation? Not georgians but the one who claim to be their president was a two nit lawyer in the offices of Soros in NY and is been groomed for this job exactly and when was time they put him on the position and location to execute what he been paid to do.
Put Russia in a very embarrassing position , halt the SCO becoming a counter weight for the Neocons plans in the general area and test Russia if she is more hot air than action so they know how to move next in Iran for example as well in eastern europe. It does not take a genius to put the dots together it only take intelligent thinking people who dont focus on one aspect of the global picture isolating it from the rest bigger picture and then it is very easy if you dont take things out of context to understand that 2+2 always equals 4.
The neocons only miscalculated one thing not Saakashvili they truly believed that Russians was not going to react as they reacted and they be coming running to them asking for justice as been on their high horse giving account to none while committing all the genocides they have around the world lost touch with reality and they truly believe that when they think it happen.
The other miscalculation they have make is the fact that now they open a war that their next move it means only one weapon can be used and at the same time they use this weapon they be loosing their mass media tool not that it matters after that.
Has any of you understand this sub humans mean to use nuclear weapons and have pave the road to this with the use of their DU?
I implore all the people who are on the blogs to stop wasting their time speculating and act while we still have time to act. Spend you energies into uniting together despite deference’s and nationalities and get to really know each other so next time one of us is killed is not just a statistic but a friend we care about and we do something about.
THINK PEOPLE THINK
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