Will Saakashvili Survive?
My friend Ayesha sends along this story about the growing chorus opposed to Mikheil Saakashvili:
“Please tell everyone in Russia, in the world, that we want to be with Russia, we don’t want Saakashvili. He has brought us nothing but trouble,” implored Karaman Goguashvili, 77. “We don’t need Nato, we don’t need America, we need to be friends with Russia.”
When asked if they agreed with this, the other villagers in the group nodded vigorously. “We’re all people who have been through a lot in our lives, we’re not easily scared,” added Mr Goguashvili, pointing out the garden where he and his wife hid during the looting raids. “But now we are all scared. Many people have died here. Who will defend us? Who will look after us? We are left here all alone.” …
One shopkeeper said he had only voted for Mr Saakashvili because government officials told him his shop would be closed down if he did not. “Russia protected Georgia for hundreds of years; we’ve always been close to Russia,” said another resident. “The Ossetians behaved like dogs, but if Russia is our friend, then the Ossetians will be our friends, too.”
This is either a remarkable, and pitiable, case of Stockholm Syndrome, or there is actually an undercurrent of discontent at the recklessness with which Saakashvili prosecuted this little disaster-war. Time will tell, but it seems to me that Saakashvili’s days in power are numbered.
Stumble it! |
Tags: Georgia.
Posted by Joshua Foust on August 28th, 2008
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Comments
Time: 8/28/2008, 3:26 pm
There is opposition to Saak, but any sentiment of “Russia is our protector” is definitely overstated in the quotes. Try going to Georgia and speaking only Russian, you’ll learn people’s attitudes toward the country real quick. Look at the mass demonstration outside Poti last week (the one with the odd protest signs in English). Georgia declared its independence from Russia as fast as it could. There are few people groups more nationalistic than Georgians.
Time: 8/28/2008, 12:17 pm
It’s good to remember that just a couple months before the war, there was broad opposition to Saakashvili–he was not popular. The riots in November of 2007 presented Saakashvili with the first real threat to his presidency. He didn’t win the presidential election by a very large margin, and as it later turned out, the election itself was not fair (see my comment in “Recognition” http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/27/recognition/#comment-378136).
After the elections, the opposition continued to organize protests, even going on hunger strikes and camping outside of Parliament, demanding that Saakashvili step down. Saakashvili was beginning to get fed up with them…
It’s not hard to see that one of the main reasons Saakashvili started the war in South Ossetia was that he knew it would unite the country around him–Georgians may hate Saakashvili, but they all hate Russia more when it invades their country.
But Saakashvili obviously imagined a different outcome from the one we have know, one that probably involved direct Western involvement. If he had succeeded in returning S. Ossetia (and Abkhazia later, as evidence suggests), forcibly nonetheless, he would have been a decorated hero of Georgia. But now, his fate (should) lies in the hands of a confused and angry Georgia. We’ll see.