It is depressing to see some of the fallout of the fighting in Georgia, whether it is the heartbreaking realization that, no, neither the U.S. nor NATO will militarily intervene with a country they don’t have a treaty with, or the truly horrifying human suffering in both Tskhinvali and now Gori. Making things more depressing is Richard Holbrooke unironically complaining about Russian realpolitik while advocating American realpolitik… to say nothing of McCain’s borderline plagiarism or Obama’s deafening silence or George W. Bush’s bumping in Beijing. I just don’t trust anyone in charge to come up with a decent plan.
And plans need to be made. Saakashvili, politically, is finished. He was baited into a fight the Russians wanted, and he did so believing that NATO and the U.S. would support him and force a pro-Georgian solution. He was possibly tempted into taking action by NATO understandably holding Georgia’s ascension hostage to the resolution of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (no one wants to take on responsibility there), while U.S. arming and support could have convinced him he could “solve” the conflicts more conclusively. On all sides, he was caught out, and took action with no backup plan should his initial thrust be reversed.
More ominously, what happens to Georgia itself? Saakashvili is done, but there is no one to replace him. As the electoral crisis last year demonstrated, even when he voluntarily resigns and holds fair and open elections, he remains the only real leader the Georgians have. What, or more importantly who, comes next? It will almost certainly be one of the many opposition leaders, all of whom share varying degrees of warmth toward Russia. The winner of that political fight—which will be metaphorically if not physically bloody—will determine the ultimate result of this war.
So in that sense, Russia is taking just as big a gamble here as Saakashvili did by invading Georgia proper and angling for regime change. But do you see anyone planning realistically for what comes after?
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Um, no. The majority of Georgian opposition parties are very much nationalists. Whom you refer to are at best on the extreme margins and have no credibility in Georgian politics.
The question, really, is whether or not the Russians – even after kicking out Saakashvili – will permit the democratic process to continue forward. I’d say no.
If Russia is smart, it will disengage, sit on what it has and allow Saakashvili to hang himself. His political career is over: no matter how patriotism Georgians feel in this terrible situation, he has lost a devastating amount of credibility and he will not recover.
this is the solution that russia will agree to in the end of the day:
- all Georgian troops out of South Ossetia / Abkhazia
- Russian troops get our of Georgia proper, with some returning to South Ossetia / Abkhazia to resume their peacekeeping roles
- Peacekeeping is resumed under a “no tolerance policy”: any sort of Georgian provacations, including the disturbance of the local populations or arrest of Russian peacekeepers will bring Russian troops back into Georgia proper and Russian jets to the skies
- But, technically, South Ossetia / Abkhazia remain part of Georgia. Autonomous, independent regions
- The arrest and prosecution of military officers that lead the offensive that killed 2,000 Ossetian civilians for war crimes
mhc, I only said “varying degrees of warmth.” Shevardnadze was not really pro-Russian, and was definitely a Georgian nationalist. I suspect Russia would love to have someone like him or with his temperament back in the President’s office. That is what I was getting at.
Kristy, you’re right. That would be the prudent thing to do. But I suspect they will not be prudent, and Saakashvili will cling to power for a few more months trying to play the brave patriot-victim. Which actually may or may not be good—I agree with you that Saakashvili is finished and will have to step down, but to do so too early would actually be disastrous for Georgia.
Colleen, I think you’re right, except for that last bullet point. I’d be surprised if anyone is held accountable or even tried for any of the war crimes that have been alleged. That is because we still don’t have independent verification of what happened in those areas. But in the end this war will amount to nothing, which is almost worse than if it had fostered some kind of fundamental change.
It is unlikely that there will be any serious war crimes trials.
There is a chance that Saakashvili was not baited, but planned some sort of “quick resolution” military strategy while most of the world’s eyes were elsewhere.
If he was baited, he’s a sucker, if he planned it, he’s a it evil. Either way, I’m taking him off my buddy list.
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