Some very smart people think Putin is the big winner of the war in Georgia. He is not. George W. Bush is. And not in the way you think.
More details have to emerge to make this more than speculation, of course, but from the looks of it this is the second war in as many years fought by a U.S. ally, ostensibly with U.S. support. The first was the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in December of 2006, in which a U.S.-armed and funded Ethiopia invaded Somalia in an attempt to drive out a fundamentalist Muslim government. The second is now, in Georgia. Nathan Hodge, writing two days ago at Danger Room offered this anecdote:
The first U.S. aid came under the rubric of the Georgia Train and Equip Program (ostensibly to counter alleged Al Qaeda influence in the Pankisi Gorge); then, under the Sustainment and Stability Operations Program. Georgia returned the favor, committing thousands of troops to the multi-national coalition in Iraq. Last fall, the Georgians doubled their contingent, making them the third-largest contributor to the coalition. Not bad for a nation of 4.6 million people.
Leaving aside the question of Russian interference (see below), the larger concern has been that Georgia might be tempted to use its newfound military prowess to resolve domestic conflicts by force.
As Sergei Shamba, the foreign affairs minister of Abkhazia, told me in 2006: “The Georgians are euphoric because they have been equipped, trained, that they have gained military experience in Iraq. It feeds this revanchist mood… How can South Ossetia be demilitarized, when all of Georgia is bristling with weaponry, and it’s only an hour’s ride by tank from Tbilisi to Tskhinvali?”
One of the U.S. military trainers put it to me a bit more bluntly. “We’re giving them the knife,” he said. “Will they use it?”
Russia unquestionably intervened. There is, however, a curious parallelism to the conflict: in 1992, Georgia attempted to head off a broad confrontation with Russia through unilateral ceasefires, only now Russia is no longer buying it… only now Georgia has U.S. support, at least tacitly. From the American side, it is difficult to imagine that, with all of the provocations against Georgia the last two years or so, no one thought Georgia would not take its newly equipped and experienced Army and try to force a solution to its breakaway regions.
Obviously, that is not working out too well, as it now is obvious Georgia badly miscalculated the effects its invasion of South Ossetia would achieve. And as Sean-Paul Kelley notes, the U.S. will almost certainly not get involved directly to force a favorable outcome (though I would add the caveat that it will not so long as BTC remains untouched).
So how would Bush win from this? South Ossetia is clearly not acting on its own—as Joshua Kucera found when he visited Tskhinvali, pretty much the whole government resides in Moscow, and the rest of the country is famously closed off to journalists—he got into trouble for photographing a building simultaneously flying Russian and Ossetian flags, though he couldn’t figure out why. Kucera even noticed that the anti-Georgian rhetoric in South Ossetia was more inflammatory than in Abkhazia, which could indicate why Georgia resorted to force here and not during any of the recent escalation events in Abkhazia.
From the political side of things, contra Zenpundit, this conflict is actually showing how Medvedev loses. By moving into the conflict zone to take personal command, Putin has demonstrated how much of a figurehead Medvedev really is.
But notice how Georgia’s oil assets are being left alone. BTC, despite initial reports to the contrary, remains untouched. And there is no way Russia wants to turn Tblisi into Grozny—politically, to a limited degree Russian does care about its perception abroad, and it couldn’t withstand a global panic about Russian expansionism. Having incontrovertible proof that Medvedev is a limp puppet ruler, with Putin the actual power broken behind the scenes, means Russia loses a great deal of its political clout since it can no longer even be called an authoritarian democracy. It therefore must resort to force to achieve any of its political ends, whether it is forcing Georgia into subservience or forcing Europe into oil dependency. A wannabe tsar ruling from the prime minister’s office might sound ominous, but it speaks to Russia’s tremendous political rot, which this conflict is highlighting. And that rot means it has little prospect of lasting for a long time (the moment Putin is out of the picture, it is difficult to imagine anything other than chaos).
As for the fighting itself: this is a punitive expedition on Russia’s part, and little more. To pretend it is anything larger is to assign Russia more power than it really has (the vast majority of its Army is little more than a paper tiger). Russia will inflict painful damage on Georgia, and will probably try to oust the Saakashvili-shaped thorn in its side. But beyond that, little will change in the region, and Russia’s weakness will have been highlighted, if not exploited.
Required Reading: Steve LeVine, who really should be listened to a lot more on this topic, sketches out this same kind of idea really well, and even sees China as the really big long-term winner (my look is in the short run). To me, this sounds about right.
Of course, the wild card here would be in Russia does try to replicate Chechnya (Putin sticking with what he knows), and Saakashvili can successfully form a guerilla army that evades Russia’s famously brutal urban counterinsurgency tactics. In which case, Bush becomes the unequivocal winner, for having pulled a Brzezinsky on Putin. We’ll see.
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Well i guess russia is AS DEMOCRATIC as georgia , saakashvili rigged the election ,closed opposition media and shot opposition protestors.
Well i don’t know what kind of LIMP leadership you suggest russia should have? well whether u like it or not the bad old yeltsin days are over and the russian people have ELECTED the leadership they want.
The only farce is the US democracy campaign , lets start by how undemocratic is georgia and then azerbijan and even afghanistan’s government and various central asian allies , in addition to the mubarak’s , the saudi’s , the hashemites, the tunisian regime …….. an endless list of authoritarian regime and some of the most brutal and repressive regimes ever.
Are the Neocons in the USA really of the belief that the largest consumer market in Europe is about to topple…and because of the silly assumption that Mevedev “looked bad” when Putin flew to North Ossetia?
I am an American living in Russia. Give me a break and understand that I know more than these Neocons in Washington.
This smacks of wishful thinking.
But even worse, is someone here implying that he would LIKE to see US-trained guerillas kill Russian men and not in battle but in surprise?
Do you realize what that can do for your chances of getting a visa to the largest economic market in Europe?
If the Russians surveying the treacherous US Neocon blogosphere are taking names right now, I would seriously consider backtracking on any implication that you would like to see more dead Russians out of this.
You are aware that the Russians just captured a major Georgian death squad unit?
Did Negroponte train them?
I liked Negroponte’s death squad attitude…when it applied to Islamfascists or drug dealers or commies in South American jungles…but against Russians?
Against the brother of my girlfriend?
Any American who supports killing Russians can go to Hell and I say that as a proud American veteran.
I can’t believe that I might have to vote Democrat for the first time in my life, but this McCain creature must not try to kill Russians.
Both of you get -10 for relevance. Who said anything about neocons or assassination or boris yeltsin?
I really don’t see how Bush has won this one, except that the element of surprise is gone. Regardless of politics, the author of this article doesn’t make a good case for how Bush won. What is not being seen here is that Iran is just as important as Russia, and both have interest in making Azerbaijan topple…since Georgia can be considered toppled already. This would put former Soviet oil back into Russian/Iranian hands, which reverses all US gains since the Soviet breakup in this region.
Remind me when Iran had part of the former Soviet Union, or when it was trying to collapse Azerbaijan?
I’m a little confused by this quote from Levine:
“And NATO has shown that it doesn’t have the gumption or inclination to stand up to Russia.”
I suppose that the European reply has been somewhat tepid. But what would a NATO response with gumption have been? Stronger diplomatic support for Georgia and condemnation of Russia? Arms shipments to Tbilisi? A consistent NATO policy to the crisis as opposed to the member state have differing reactions to the conflict?
As a person from Central Asia (Former Soviet Union Region) now living in US, I can say that Americans and Westerners do not understand how current Russian regime thinks. Russia is ruled by KGB and old communist mindset. Current regime defies any diplomatic talks over Georgia and wants to change the regime in Georgia. Georgia, pioneer democratic country among Former Soviet Union States, is the grave danger to the current authoritarian and dictatorial regimes in Russia and Central Asia. US and Europe promised to support democracy and freedom but could not deliver. US need to defend Georgia. Russia knows that US overspent itself in Iraq. They know that US financially bankrupt and politically paralyzed before elections. Europe is too soft and diplomatic. Russia knows that Europe is weak and dependant in its energy resources. Question of the day to US and Europe: Why do you promise if you can’t deliver?
The issue here is not whether anyone has “gumption” or not unless one is analyzing how rednecks in Texas are going to react to the what the liberal media is feeding them about big bad Russia.
Russia wants its simple objectives met and no “hard-line” by Bush or anyone else is going to change the fact that Russia already occupies the disputed territory and isn’t going anywhere until Georgia agrees not to attack them again.
Don’t you subscribe to some of the paid services discussing the war?
What NATO just did was clearly designed to prolong the war. They just asked Russia to “help Georgia reassert control over Abkhazia and SO”.
That is a total insult to the Russians. It says “surrender and go home”.
What it really says is “NATO wants this war to continue”.
From the Russian point of view, the only way out of this mess is for Georgia to promise not to EVER go back into these areas with its military.
If George Bush and the EU and NATO are not at least quietly telling the Georgian President to do just that, we are going to see a prolonged conflict.
But considering the Roosevelt, Reagan and Iwo Jima are steaming toward the Gulf and due to arrive in a few days…it may just be NATO’s plan to keep the Russians occupied while the real war happens down south.
Then again, Bush and Putin may have both agreed to let each other clean up old business about now. This may be why Putin gave such a tepid response today to the US ferrying in 800 Georgian troops from Iraq…which was technically an act of war against Russia…but which Russia referred to on much less harsh terms.
What concerns me most is how pliable rednecks are in the USA (I am not referring to this site but some of the Pajamas media comment sections). I have always been a hawk regarding America’s real enemies (Russia not being one of them since the Soviets razrushilis), but lately I am concerned about the type of person I have politically allied with in the past to see our enemies dealt with.
I am not for Obama but I do not want to see him harmed politically because of the only sensible thing he ever said, which was his initial statement on this war that was caused by both sides.
The issue here is not whether anyone has “gumption” or not unless one is analyzing how rednecks in Texas are going to react to the what the liberal media is feeding them about big bad Russia.
Russia wants its simple objectives met and no “hard-line” by Bush or anyone else is going to change the fact that Russia already occupies the disputed territory and isn’t going anywhere until Georgia agrees not to attack them again.
Don’t you subscribe to some of the paid services discussing the war?
What NATO just did was clearly designed to prolong the war. They just asked Russia to “help Georgia reassert control over Abkhazia and SO”.
That is a total insult to the Russians. It says “surrender and go home”.
What it really says is “NATO wants this war to continue”.
From the Russian point of view, the only way out of this mess is for Georgia to promise not to EVER go back into these areas with its military.
If George Bush and the EU and NATO are not at least quietly telling the Georgian President to do just that, we are going to see a prolonged conflict.
But considering the Roosevelt, Reagan and Iwo Jima are steaming toward the Gulf and due to arrive in a few days…it may just be NATO’s plan to keep the Russians occupied while the real war happens down south.
Then again, Bush and Putin may have both agreed to let each other clean up old business about now. This may be why Putin gave such a tepid response today to the US ferrying in 800 Georgian troops from Iraq…which was technically an act of war against Russia…but which Russia referred to on much less harsh terms.
What concerns me most is how pliable rednecks are in the USA (I am not referring to this site but some of the Pajamas media comment sections). I have always been a hawk regarding America’s real enemies (Russia not being one of them since the Soviets razrushilis), but lately I am concerned about the type of person I have politically allied with in the past to see our enemies dealt with.
I am not for Obama but I do not want to see him harmed politically because of the only sensible thing he ever said, which was his initial statement on this war that was caused by both sides.
I think BTC is being overemphasized. Was the next step to make Azerbaijan part of NATO? Without all the pieces, I believe the logic behind that portion of the argument stops flowing. Forgive my ignorance here, perhaps there are moves afoot which you are hinting at.
I see US-Russian relations more through the “Cold War inertia” prism. How many assets and agents did America have to battle Godless Soviet Communism? Did the moles just retire to America? When Putin started acting up, whenever you think that might have been, these same cabinets full of yellowing sheets of knowledge and dusty rolodexes filled with contacts could be used to push things one way or the other.
If Saakashvili ends up without a job, however that happens (footage today on RT shows his security detail (12+!) piling on top of him, obviously responding to a perceived threat), then Putin wins and loses. He wins the battle, surely, but loses intangibles in future deal-with-West issues.
An economist or analyst or trader on Russia Today noted that Bush said Russia used a “disproportionate response” which he latched on to, saying that it implied “some response” was in order.
It is pretty obvious that Russia’s message about Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, War Crimes and Aggression by Georgia are simply not penetrating the West in any serious way. Without that, Russia looks the villain, and so has lost.
Excuse my poor English but I know what I am saying as a person from the region. I don’t agree with above mentioned comment which says that Russia would leave Georgia in peace if Georgia pulls out from Abkhasia and Ossetia. This is not true. I have been to Moscow and I know that whole Russian media playing around animosity between Putin and Georgian president. Russia wants to stop democratic changes that is coming from free world. Russia already stopped these process in Central Asia.
I think it remains to be seen whether Bush wins or loses here. If Saak is ousted, then I think in the long-run Bush loses. He’s a lame-duck anyway, so pretty hollow victory.
There’s at least one blogger out there covering the refugee camps in Vladikavkaz, and I’m pretty impressed with the organization/equipment that Russia has put there. The medical care and psychologists working there seem superb. Interesting, given how badly the response to the Beslan crisis was botched. Russia trying hard to be the winner, I think.
And I think the blogger about Iran/Azerbaijan has a semi-valid point. Northern Iran is mostly Azerbaijani-populated. Iran has been pretty unhappy with Western companies in the Caspian and with the Western military ideas for the country that have been thrown around over the years (like a NATO base). Medvedev said last month that Russia would like to buy up all the gas in Azerbaijan ( rather than see it get piped westward). There’s little doubt that Moscow wouldn’t tolerate a regime that was too Western-friendly, and has been critical of Azeri interaction with the European Council and NATO (as well as sending troops to Iraq). If Georgia’s government falls, I think it sends countries like Azerbaijan and Moldova a message: You only lean as far West as Putin will let you.
Well…Samtredia is about to fall. If the Russians get Samtredia, the capital is cut off completely from the Black Sea and via any land route to Turkey. The BTC is also there…but I just can’t see the Russians harming it or shutting it off (it is already shut off at the moment).
The Russians can stand still if they reach Samtredia because they will have the Georgian president by the neck.
Uzbek: I guess you are right that they want the president of Georgia out of there as well.
Jack Chambers looks like you care more about your investments in Russia or emerging markets in CIS.
Oh, and Baku oil can go through Makhachkala instead.
CIA PDF of pipelines in region from Perry Castaneda.
Now Gori is apparently captured. Gori is 37 klicks from Tbilisi.
So they are 20 miles from the capital.
Russia can not be be a member of UN Security Council. It is no longer super power. It should be dismissed.
Josh SN: The whole point of BTC is to bypass Russia. And the Makhachkala line has 1/10th the capacity of BTC (and the pipelines in Daghestan either blow up or are blown up fairly often).
I agree with Uzbek that Russia cares little about South Ossetia and Abkhazia, their main aim is to punish Georgia. Although his opinion about Russia’s influence on democratic processes in Central Asia is exagerated or overrated. Similarly assumptions about threat from “dictatorial regimes of Central Asia” for Georgian democracy is nonsense. As Russia’s and Georgia’s close neighbours, Central Asian governments should be very anxious if not sympathetic to Georgia, because the recent development showed how little Russia cares for and respects souverenity of her neighbouring countries. Almost all countries in the region face at some extent threat of separatism, besides kazakh companies (mainly KMG) have large assets in Georgia, plus as far as know Nazarbaev and Saakashvilli have good relationships.
However, I agree with Jack that politically everybody around are interested that war continues longer if it is localized within SO borders.
too bad u people are talking about who wins or loses/money or other.
but as u see pic`s of people dead or injure because of grown socalled men who may or may not pray to a god
who think nothing about the women or children they kill or maim,buildings destroyed, markets wipe out.
we invite putin to usa to fish/relax and then he goes out and murder as he did b4 in 1999 apt building bombings of his own people!
and bush & condi are just as much to blame too.
you dont play with this putin.
you ether over whelm him or he will wipe u out.
appeasment is not an option here.
russian people are my friends and so r others in cis countrys
but their people elect or allow this and they have to stop it or dont worry about getting your next visa it will be what glows in the night.
Jack Chambers,
Do you really think the fact you have a Russian girlfriend should influence the policies of our government in relation to Russia? If so, grow up.
And also, it’s not only “rednecks” who believe the decision to invade Georgia proper is a very serious act, and should be dealt with in a serious, but well thought out manner.
I, for one, am fluent in Russian, German, and proficient in several others, and I think this represents a breaking point in history, and the beginning of a reassertion of the old Russian bear.
Hopefully the matter can be dealt with in a peaceful manner.
But you need to get a little perspective.
My bad. Looks like they are going for Tbilisi. Imagine if 1400 American civilians were killed on the first day of a battle with a small country. The leader of that country would be considered dead meat by the population of the USA. It is the same thing going on here. While I am not saying I agree with this, you really have to look at this from the point of view of how the Americans would feel if there was a skirmish with Mexico that left 1400 American civilians dead inside the border with Mexico.
Even if the original fight was about a disputed territory, the deaths of the civilians would cause the people of the USA to think of the Mexican leader like he was Saddam.
Even if one does not believe that 1400 civilians were killed by Georgian commandoes and artillery on Friday, the lesson to other countries including the US: Never target Russian civilians. Period.
Matt: You are saying the USA should provide help in killing Russian men?
To all you people who only see this as a cynical ploy from Russia, you forget many things. First and foremost, that Georgia was the agressor, and went all medieval on a city where 90 percent of the citizens have russian passports and wich was protected by russian forces for a long time. *The Georgians knew what they were doing*.
Second, you tend to underestmate the russian nationalistic feeling and how much this has to say in politics in Russia. By doing what they were doing, Georgia forced Russias hand. And my guess is the russian generals were shouting with joy and happiness, because they got several christmas-gifts in one from the incredibly stupid georgian agression:
* They got to test out their new air-sea-land doctrines and equipment under real live fighting conditions.
* They got to finally remove the georgian government
* They got to show that Russia looks after its own citizens and are not slaves of the west.
It is funny to see the crazy McCain talking like a stupid cowboy. Russia supplies Europe with energy, and China supplies the USA with money. The US forces are close to the breaking point, the EU forces *are* at the breaking point, Russia is just mirroring what NATO did in Kosovo and *still* he talks like a cowboy, like he is roman emperor. From a norwegian perspective, this sounds like crazyness.
This war is not over. Do you think that the U.S. and Nato will allow the Russian bear to destroy a democratic elected EUROPEAN country?
Do you think that the Russian economy can withstand the pressure of massive withdrawls of european and united states support?
Do you really think that the Russian military can sustain operations in a country that will recieve NATO air support?
This is the 21st century… not 1945…. the world will not allow the russian bear to bring back the soviet sphere of influence… this is not a internal russian matter… this is a european country under attack.
Europe and the United States have no choice in the matter. If Georgia is a allowed to be destroyed….. where will the line be drawn? Poland? East Germany? Ukraine?
“Do you think that the Russian economy can withstand the pressure of massive withdrawls of european and united states support?
Do you really think that the Russian military can sustain operations in a country that will recieve NATO air support?”
Ummmm. Dont hold your breath waiting, oldguy. The whole rhetoric about first Tblisi, then Berlin is overlooking the fact that Georgia attacked first, you know? Europe is going to do *nothing* militarily, and so is USA. Excpect some halfhearted rebuilding packages, complete with non-negotiable sidecontracts etc. packed in. Money doesnt care about politics, and Russia has money. Its the beauty of capitalism, innit?
fnord,
Right on. Russian “nationalistic” feeling doesn’t even have to come into it. I’m watching Russia Today and, if someone were to believe most of what they are saying, America is backing a genocidal maniac who kills Russians, and the world is doing nothing about it! It looks like clearcut injustice, regardless who is the victim.
Georgia did not invade Russia…. but Russia has invaded Georgia….
Do not make the mistake of thinking that the U.S. will stop at words…. a EUROPEAN country is under attack.
Listen to the U.S. president… IF Russia attacks the capital and bombs the international airport….. stop and listen……
this is not Rhetoric…. this is a tripwire… do not think that the U.S. cannot act.
Again… Listen to the presidents words…. this is the 21st century…. this is a democratic elected soveign country…
Putin must think carefully… the next few hours may be the most important for the Russian Federation.
This is a replay of the oh-so-successful Palestinian tactic of launching “annoyance attacks” (merely annoying unless you happen to be relatives of the unhappy casualties) from “civilian” areas with the tacit approval of the local population, then screaming “war crimes” when an army comes by to stop the launches.
The fact that this came about right after the railroad was repaired in Abkhazia, and the fact that so many freakin’ Russians could show up so fast is conclusive evidence that events to date are following a Russian script. Some day we may learn what caused Georgia to take the bait at just the time it did — probably indications that other times would be worse.
The Russians’ major weakness is its logistics — so far as I understand it, there are but four routes from Russia to Georgia. The port, the road/train through Abkhazia, the road/tunnel between the Ossetias, and a high road through a seasonal pass between the Ossetias. Once winter comes, these will become increasingly vulnerable, and the Russian war machine had better be back on their own side of the mountains or extremely well settled-in by then.
I suspect that the Georgians and the rest of the world will talk a lot before then, but that things will really start to happen once the snow begins to fall.
cthulu: Got any details on russian airborne logistics capacity? My guess, however, is that the Russians will stop outside Tblisi and not risk another Grozny, then do piecemeal shelling until Saakashvili resigns. The question is if they want to arrest him and try him for War Crimes as well, then it is a clear signal from Putin that the rest of the world can go to hell when it comes to the Caucasus. Putin was comparing him to Saddam Hussein who got hanged for killing “a few sjia villages” yesterday, so mr. Saakashvili is propably pretty nervous right now. This operation will be wrapped up in september, with Ossetia and Abkhazia established freezones under russian/mafya protection.
And speaking of logistics, i guess the US can now say goodby to the northern route of supplying Afghanistan? That will have a serious impact if Pakistan goes unfriendly with the pushing out of Musharraf…
Wow. Jack Chambers is such an American Patriot. He assures us that allowing Putin to overthrow Russia’s neighbors is a good thing. After all, his girlfriend’s brother is down there with 5 times as many soldiers as the entire armed forces of Georgia (and nearly 10 times as many tanks) saving rebels and counterfeiters of US currency in South Ossetia (i.e., Georgia) from the Georgian government.
May the Lord save us from such “patriots”. And may the Lord give peace to the people of the region.
Meanwhile, as Jack threatens us about not being able to get a visa to visit Mother Russia, some of us Texas Rednecks (I did get a little sun-burned last weekend) wish him all the best in his new home. And remember that Lee Harvey Oswald had a Russian girlfriend, too…
Maybe it’s something in the water?
I wondered where Jack got off to. He is like a one man disinformation squad, heh?
Your blog is interesting!
Keep up the good work!
Haven’t read something this dumb in weeks.
Let me get this straight… they lost because…er… Putin took charge… ?!
I get it now. It’s one of those quantum political theory variations.
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