Ignore the Day-to-Day, and also Bloggers
As the fighting in South Ossetia heats up, it’s interesting to see the rush by all the bloggers to do the biggest, grandest roundups. By looking at this, you see those who think they’re clever by either stating the obvious (Russia wants to split Georgia, Abkhazia is getting involved), the conventional wisdom (Russia wants to disrupt the Georgia energy corridor), or the plain old wrong (Russia wants to annex Georgia). The examples are countless, and while not necessarily wrong, none are really saying anything those who are knowledgable of the situation haven’t been saying for months or years. You also notice that the same four or five stories from the New York Times, CNN, or the BBC all get linked and excerpted, as people play arm-chair correspondents and try to track every bombing, explosion, artillery strike, and troop movement.
Basically, ignore all of that. We will not have a useful picture of the minutae of the fighting for at least several days (really? Russia will own Georgian airspace just like that?), until some good correspondents get on the scene and we’re not left hearing only what the various foreign ministries say. If you can read Russian or Georgian, there are many blogs posting pictures and personal accounts that can provide much better data (Yerevan-based reporter Onnik Krikorian is a notable exception and his collections of local blogger-journalism are absolutely necessary reading). Far more interesting than the minutae of the tactical aspects of this fight, at least to me, is the political aspect. Blake Hounshell did an admirable job of rounding up some of these, including the very salient point that Russia has refused a cease-fire.
But even that is just conventional wisdom. Who cares? It’s called conventional wisdom because everyone already knows it. Finding something new or interesting about this conflict is tough, and the blogosphere is being more hurtful than helpful in offering anything of value. There is very little attention being paid, for example, to Russia’s diplomatic moves, which seem curiously centered in Brussels, and not Tskhinvali, Tblisi, or Moscow. Why Brussels? This escalation happened right before Georgia was scheduled for its ascension into NATO, and Russian would love nothing more than to scuttle Georgia’s chances. Pretending that the South Ossetian shadow government makes any of its own decision is about as useful as pretending the shadow government in Abkhazia does. They got violent because Moscow told them to, and it has been that way for a good fifteen years now (the Abkhaz government is a bit more autonomous, but they remain fatally reliant on Russian support).
This is one example. There are some others, such as Novaya Gazeta columnist Yulia Latynina’s excellent analysis of how this will play within Russia’s siloviki, that get lost in the noise (this is Anna Politkovsaya’s paper, by the way). What a tragedy—the real advantage the blogosphere is supposed to be its superior information collection and analysis skills; instead, all we have so far is a big echo chamber of the same three ideas about the so-called “frozen conflicts” that have been circling the drain for the last decade. It is increasingly clear the community of blogs cares not a whit for expertise or experience, when you see war blogs like the Small Wars Journal linking to a blog reminding us that this is “still a holdover from the breakup of the Soviet Union,” to the Instapundit linking to renown Georgia expert Tigerhawk. Seriously? The same blogs, all the time, for all topics? That’s remarkably MSM-style behavior.
Honestly, blogosphere: you can do a helluva lot better. At least, so I thought.
Update: For shits and giggles, dig our dear friend Ralph Peters in such moral agony he can barely move his fingers to type of the brave and embattled democratic-pacifist Georgian patriots being ground beneath the merciless tanks of an Imperial Russia desperate for her former glorious Empire. If prisoners at Guantanamo Bay were tortured like Ralph Peters tortures his writing, there would have already been trials for war crimes.
Update 2: Steve LeVine, who used to live in Tblisi and covered the 1993 conflict in Abkhazia, injects some much-needed sobriety into the discussion of the conflict.
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Tags: Georgia, blogosphere.
Posted by Joshua Foust on August 9th, 2008
Permalink | Trackback | Comments: 71
Comments
Time: 8/9/2008, 3:34 pm
You mean a roundup of a bunch of stories all saying the same thing from the same sources? I’ll suppress a yawn.
Time: 8/9/2008, 4:03 pm
I have to point out that Yulia Latinina says this is going to be a great victory for Georgia. Ummm.
Also, big loss for the siloviki? Time will tell, but I’d bet money not.
Spot on about Ralph Peters, sure.
Doug M.
Time: 8/9/2008, 4:15 pm
You can argue about her analysis if you want (I wouldn’t write it off that quickly, but I’m also in the minority in thinking Russia’s military is a big paper tiger). The point I’m highlighting is that she’s offering really interesting, counter-intuitive ideas about the conflict, something you’re not finding in the rest of the flapping head crowd.
Time: 8/9/2008, 5:36 pm
Thanks for the link to the Latynina article. That’s the best read of the weekend.
Time: 8/9/2008, 5:42 pm
I should add that I would believe Latynina’s premise more if Putin hadn’t clearly overstepped his constitutional role by belittling Medvedev running this war from North Ossetia.
Time: 8/9/2008, 5:58 pm
Not to sound overly touchy, but the post you to link to of mine is a showcasing of the Jamestown Foundation’s take on the conflict. I don’t agree with them, nor do those I get information from, but it is important to provide their perspective particularly because they’ve been predicting something like this for the last few weeks.
I’ve never been big on the idea that blogs provide some magic information source. The blogsphere does give you access to what I’d call “blog journalism”: accounts by people in faraway places. But some of that is more noise and human interest than actual insight. Most of the general politics blog coverage needs to be seen as news aggregation; and that’s a useful service so long as the same three or four articles aren’t repeatedly cited. And there are basic things that blogs can provide, like reminding people that the vaunted British news services also have developed an anti-Russian slant (for obvious reason) in the last few years.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:10 pm
Justin, absolutely. Again, given where she’s writing from, take it with the necessary grain of salt, but I don’t think she is totally out of line.
Daniel, I don’t mean to belittle your blog personally, just highlight that post of yours, which is showing EDM’s analysis, was linked to a lot. This is a personal thing, but I’ve rarely found Jamestown Foundation stuff to be overly rigorous or interesting. Hence, why I was like, “what? everyone thinks this, more than anything else, is interesting?”
About the blogs… well, so far, it’s about 99% conventional wisdom quoting from the same couple of newspapers. Frankly, this is boring, and my post here was meant to be more of a “okay, stop sounding the echo chamber.” There is no difference between the narrow aggregating the big blogs do and the narrow expert mining the big papers do — in the end, it reflects a general lack of interest in expertise and diversity of opinion.
Not that it’s a crime, blogs replicating, say, CNN. But I always heard from blog-boosters that they’re better, that they don’t entrench opinion or analysis, and everything else you’ve heard too. So far, I’m waiting for that “better” thing to emerge — none of the big blogs are really getting into the smaller blogs, like Krikorian, LeVine, or even any of the English-language local blogs, that could actually have insight into what’s going on. They’re just quoting the same blabbermouth blogs they quote for everything else, which all have the exact same news feeds in their RSS reader.
Hence my yawning. Remember my bigger point was that aggregating a bunch of stories that claim to track the fighting bomb-by-bomb is a fool’s errand, and tells us nothing interesting about the conflict.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:16 pm
And Daniel, it’s funny you note the British papers are anti-Russian “for obvious reason” (there’s that phrase again). At least one blogger is noting that the BBC and the Times are actually rather anti-Georgian.
Not that I have a beef with them one way or another. The BBC is generally the only professional one of the lot. But still, it is an interesting contrast.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:35 pm
Well, if that’s the reason why the Brits are biased towards Russia, I’m not impressed. 
Look, much of the initial reporting did betray something of an anti-Russian slant. Although I’d still go with the BBC over a vast majority of alternatives.
You’re right that I was being lazy and not listing everything from Litvinenko’s assassination to the attempt to force BP to hand over its operations to its Russian investors; I think the Brits have plenty of reasons to be pissed.
But you should know that I take your commentary seriously. I’m a long-term fan of registan, and you are right about making sure we keep our blog houses clean.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:39 pm
For whatever it’s worth, The Duck of Minerva is a great blog, and everyone here should add it to their aggregators.
And Josh, I think that Sloph is misreading that question from the BBC as anti-Georgian. It sounds more to me like the way they always ask questions in interviews. The style’s more aggressive, which makes it very easy to come off as sounding slanted.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:39 pm
PS: The Jamestown Crowd, as a friend of mine once put it, can’t make up their mind whether or not the Russians are omniscient Machiavellians or bumbling incompetents. Their reporting isn’t bad, though, just insanely slanted.
There’s a basic problem in the US that’s been developing over the last ten years: The only organizations that kept on paying attention to Russia were either unrepentant Cold War conservatives or pro-Russian apologists. That’s obviously begun to change in the last few years, but not enough for adequate public discourse.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:40 pm
Daniel, I really appreciate that. But I hope you don’t think I was accusing you of being lazy. You weren’t. At least as best I could tell, you weren’t just linking to the same five blogs you link to whenever you want to talk about something but don’t have the time to do so.
The large, news aggregator blogs, on the other hand, have been incredibly lazy. That is where I ire is focused.
Oh, and “for obvious reasons” was used by opposite sides of the discussion in the previous post on the fighting; that’s why I highlighted its use here and kind of chuckled.
Gah. Timing. Yes, what Nathan and Daniel said just above.
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:41 pm
Thanks Nathan
Time: 8/9/2008, 6:59 pm
I might also point out some of the articles from the past month at Kavkaz Center rather interesting (though the website very biased). They chronicled evacuations from S. Ossetia long before Friday, which were denied at the time as “summer camp preparations.” They also reported a Russian airborne troop buildup outside the Kodori Gorge a couple weeks ago. Makes you wonder…
Time: 8/9/2008, 11:13 pm
trying to help as you suggest
http://bloggerinterrupted.com/2008/08/on-georgia-vs-russia-and-obama-vs-mccain
Time: 8/9/2008, 11:38 pm
What I find odd is that I’d bet you’d be miffed if the blogosphere would be ignoring the situation. But, when they try and do the best they can because they just don’t know where to turn, you get all self-righteous and point out how stupid you think they are. Instead of trying to impress everybody with how dumb you think we are, teach us. And yeah, I see that there are several much need alternatives that you linked to, but the tone of your post leaves much to be desired. Why would I come here to learn if you’re going to insult me if I don’t do it in a manner you think proper?
Time: 8/10/2008, 12:02 am
Well, I’m glad to find a source to some links on what is going on there and providing some reporting and background that is not the boilerplate MSM output, Joshua. I’ve been looking for the blogs doing it since the news first broke yesterday and I got here now via Instapundit. I presume you got his attention by sending him an email and he relayed the info with a link.
Have you emailed others? That’s the best way for people who don’t know where to look, find where to go. Without it, they are stuck with well known places, like the NYT, CNN and BBC. Make sure you get the notice out. Flood the zone and and the word will spread.
Time: 8/10/2008, 12:40 am
TO: Joshua Foust
RE: Wrong?
“….the conventional wisdom (Russia wants to disrupt the Georgia energy corridor), or the plain old wrong (Russia wants to annex Georgia).” — Joshua Foust
Russia, whether Czarist, Communist or Putinist, has ALWAYS desired to expand it’s control/influence south to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.
This is history repeating itself….AGAIN…..
I’m reminded of the games of Risk and Diplomacy.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Cannon: A device employed in the rectification of national boundaries.]
Time: 8/10/2008, 12:56 am
What blogs can provide that the MSM cannot provide because of their very structure is a long-term viewpoint based on knowledge of history and culture. The MSM is not going to talk about the Golden Horde dismembering ancient Rus and the resulting impact upon the culture of both modern-day Russia and the modern-day Caucasus region, for example. Or talk about the ethnic differences between the people in the breakaway regions and the people in Georgia proper, and how that relates to Stalin’s policies of mass relocations of peoples and bundling multiple peoples into the same SSR boundaries in order to prevent the people in any SSR from uniting together and creating a real nationalist movement against Soviet rule. There will be no discussion of long-term disagreements. There will be, instead, a facile surface “this and this and this happened”, with no understanding of the overall geopolitical or historical background of what is happening.
When it comes to war reporting, it’s fairly easy to extract some small part of the signal from the noise — if both sides report that event X has happened, event X probably happened. But what that means in the overall scheme of things can’t be noted until later. But we can talk about the capabilities of the modern Russian Army (which sucks for 95% of the Russian Army which is starving draftee soldiers with outdated Soviet weapons, but the remaining 5% that is the “Special Units” have weapons a generation newer than the Georgian weaponry and first class training), we can talk about Georgia’s lack of an air force and how that will play into Russia attempting to do a replay of the Serbia-Kosovar conflict except with them on the side of the breakway provinces, etc. None of which the mainstream media will be talking about. So while none of us know what’s happening on the ground — now — at least we can be building up the body of knowledge to make sense of what is happening on the ground once the fog of war lifts and it becomes known.
- Badtux the War Penguin
Time: 8/10/2008, 2:46 am
Well I am so glad I didn’t do an update today at the agonist! 
Time: 8/10/2008, 3:07 am
now the georgians will learn what the rest of the world already knows, the u.s. dosen’t give a shit about anybody but themselves.
Time: 8/10/2008, 5:10 am
It is all very waiting for journalists to wade in and providing more factual grist to the mill, but the problem is that the Georgian conflict is for numerous reasons one of the hardest in the world on which to report accurately.
First and foremost, both sides (or all four sides, if we include the risible administrations of the would-be breakaway regions) are inveterate manipulators of information after a fashion that is virtually unseen anywhere else. If the flare-up came as a relative surprise to anybody not closely monitoring the region, it is because Georgians, Ossetians and Abkhaz have been trading ludicrous and almost always false accusations of border incidents for so many years that it was never clear that anything on this scale would ever happen.
Reporters necessarily rely in the fog of conflict on the varying accounts offered by competing parties and that has got us precious little useful data over the past few days. What relatively impartial information we can glean in such a focalized missile-battery and air bombing campaign is inevitably anecdotal in nature.
What is more verifiable and clear, however, are the broad scope of issues that has brought Georgia and Russia to this point and there hardly be much argument for saying that even the armchair geopolitical expert should not be allowed their two cents worth. It is not inconceivable that the Olympic timing of this conflict was designed in part to avoid too much scrutiny from the non-specialist audience and it is heartening that so many people have taken interest in what might be otherwise viewed as some backwater sideshow. Crude and ill-informed or otherwise as the early amateur analysis may be, Georgians will greatly appreciate and be hearted by the fact that the Western public at large is trying to promote interest in the events. Indeed, I think that it may be the paucity of fresh analysis but surfeit of interest that will compel many mainstream media outlets to strive to redouble their efforts bolstering and deepening their coverage both now and in the mid-term.
Time: 8/10/2008, 7:58 am
I agree with both boggers joshua and nathan to ignore the day-to-day, and also our self … the bloggers in the daily internet actionism … I can understand very well the reasons of this guys but for me it is also an aspect to read what is the discussion there - for example in the internet. Yeh, I know in the most times it is a multiplication function for headlines from the main mean productions factories from “unknown” agencies.
Otherwise I’m german and I’m interesting very well in all from the south caucasian area. For me is my blog like an archive and other georgian people in this times from all over the world can also see the discussion and the press in Germany for example. I know - most times blogs are also a crucial collection or a rubbish field of media effects… But we need to see it all to make our own meaning.
With the war in Georgia I think .. I’m more near with the theoretical view of war from Godard (a french filmmaker) in his films. He said it is a stupid thinking to believe you can make a objectiv picture of this crucial and strange phenomen …
But I like blogs, … one of my favourites is www.registan.net
Time: 8/10/2008, 9:02 am
Well, the blogosphere cannot really provide more accurate facts from the region or any more detailed historic account than past publications have done.
However, it can do three things:
a) bring some of the (historical or political facts) to those readers who usually focus on other topics
b) spread information about blogs and personal accounts from the region (such as Wu Wei)
c) try to foster a real discussion about what is spin and political rhetoric, and give our very personal interpretation and feelings about the situation, something journalists tend to hide behind so-called objectivity (which is quite nicely dismantled in the blogosphere).
From my point of view, this is quite some added value to the clip loops in the global networks and national TV stations.
Time: 8/10/2008, 9:11 am
You criticize various bloggers because “none are really saying anything those who are knowledgable of the situation haven’t been saying for months or years”.
I think you have overlooked the fact that MANY people are not knowledgeable of the situation. A couple of days ago I couldn’t have told you what continent South Ossetia was on. If pressed, I might have been able to dredge up the recollection that Georgia and Russia have not been on good terms ever since Georgia became indepedent.
I simply can’t be “knowledgeable” about every long standing, deeply complex situation around the globe, but when conflict flares into war, I try to get up to speed. Links like the ones you criticize from Instapundit provide a good primer for people like me, so that I can make sense of posts like yours.
Time: 8/10/2008, 9:12 am
I’m sorry, did you say something?
Time: 8/10/2008, 9:48 am
Saakashvili Is A War Criminal.
Registan continues to delete the truth. He’s an American employee.
Time: 8/10/2008, 10:07 am
FWIW, I don’t think Russia’s diplomatic efforts are necessarily centered on Brussels. A lot of the statements have been coming from Moscow, and I would imagine the Russians are working the situation on all fronts. I would also imagine Europe is more worried about the security of its energy supplies than about NATO at this point.
Time: 8/10/2008, 10:07 am
Four sources reporting Georgian unilaterial ceasefire in the last 20 minutes.
Georgian ceasefire.
Since I’m avoiding most any analysis (except for how outrageous “Russia Today” is, makes Fox look fair and balanced), well, whatever.
Just the facts, please.
Time: 8/10/2008, 10:13 am
Onnik Kirkorian is mostly quoting U.S. blogs.
And he’s missing the elephant in the room. McCain is well known for wanting to eject Russia from the G8, or come up with an alternative “League of Democracies” which would exclude Russia. This is sympathetic with, but not identical to, the Heritage Foundation’s position on getting rid of the United Nations.
This is old news, but none of the bloggers Krikorian notes brings it up.
I doubt Putin is so ill-informed as not to know of the presumptious[sic] Republican Presidential nominees position on the subject of his country.
Meanwhile, Zbig is on Obama’s team. Don’t know how powerful he is there, but, well, I really don’t know enough to say more.
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:12 am
Bills, you’re right. I didn’t get a bit of sleep last night because I was so busy deleting the truth.
Anyhow, the big point that I think Josh is making here about the blogosphere is that reading a lot of the blogosphere on this situation is like watching cable news. Some anchor passes the baton off to some person who has no clue what they’re talking about. There are a helluva lot of blogs out there that are just about as sage and insightful as the retired flag officers who point at maps on TV. To the blogosphere’s credit, it’s better at correcting itself. It’s just interesting that it’s first impulse is to more or less behave like the target of so much of its disdain.
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:22 am
I am trying to find out more about the origins of the Russian presence Georgia/South Ossetia from (1991?1992?) onwards in the hope that it would clarify my understanding of the present situation.
What would be a good resource to turn to, book, article, online or otherwise? Normally I’d be lazy and turn to wikipedia, but I’m afraid that it’s being tampered with by patriotic users from all three sides.
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:28 am
All world does not know the truth. Please rescue our children. We die for famine in cellars. Go here and learn(find out) the truth about that as the Georgians scoff at us! RESCUE US!!! http: // southosetia.wordpress.com
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:28 am
All world does not know the truth. Please rescue our children. We die for famine in cellars. Go here and learn(find out) the truth about that as the Georgians scoff at us! RESCUE US!!! http: // southosetia.wordpress.com
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:48 am
GV/Onnik/Artur are primarily quoting Armenian bloggers who are soooo pro-Russian. I complained here: http://ditord.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/saakashvilis-miscalculations-and-war-in-ossetia/
Wish that GV would also link to some of the blogs linked to in this piece, or this piece itself.
I’ve been updating via Facebook and MetaFilter.
http://www.metafilter.com/73953/Russian-tanks-and-jets-roll-into-Georgia
Time: 8/10/2008, 11:52 am
For ex-pats coming to Armenia, here’s a little guide I wrote up:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=40008356248&created&suggest#/note.php?note_id=39981946248&ref=mf
Time: 8/10/2008, 1:18 pm
So, Joshua, seems like you desire novel/counter-intuitive analysis, regardless if it is based in reality.
Time: 8/10/2008, 1:33 pm
It’s like armageddon’s here. I’ve never seen such blackhearted people…but is it possible to call them “people”. My name is Inga, today I saw the scene, that chased on my memory forever. A georgian soldier beheaded defenseless man…before this soldier cut off his moustache and compel him to eat it…
He does not have a right to be called a person…my poor osetian people, my poor lands…
Here you know thrue http://southosetia.wordpress.com
Time: 8/10/2008, 4:53 pm
Do you really think that Osetia and Abhasia are still resist to Georgia only because of russian pressure? They began to fight in 1992 (afaik), it was very cruel battle. For example, georgian soldiers destroy the helicopter evacuating abkhasian childs from dangerous zone. Other side - abkhasia and osetia - was cruel also (especially after that incident).
And now georgian soldiers destroy Tskhinval. They don’t need russia to hate each other. “siloviki” (as Latinina wrote) are not the cause of problem, but one of the consequences.
Time: 8/10/2008, 4:55 pm
Do you really think that Osetia and Abhasia are still resist to Georgia only because of russian pressure? They began to fight in 1992 (afaik), it was very cruel battle. For example, georgian soldiers destroy the helicopter evacuating abkhasian childs from dangerous zone. Other side - abkhasia and osetia - was cruel also (especially after that incident).
And now georgian soldiers destroy Tskhinval. They don’t need russia to hate each other. “siloviki” (as Latinina wrote) are not the cause of problem, but one of the consequences.
My english is not good, but i try to tell you about the vision of the problem from russian side.
Time: 8/10/2008, 6:57 pm
Brussels and NATO are not so relevent until Turkey becomes concerned. What is Ankara doing?
Time: 8/10/2008, 10:38 pm
Alright, people, from the top.
rrr, I have no idea where you’d get that idea, apart from the same complaints that the big blogs tend to ignore stories until their usual suspects talk about them. It is the same echo chamber/self-referential problem those same big blogs tend to complain about the MSM doing.
Dusty, aside from bloggers with whom I have a friendly and working relationship (and really only one or two come to mind) I don’t email out links to my posts. There are probably many reasons behind it, but the biggest and most important for me is I feel really uncomfortable self-hyping like that.
Chuck Pelto, wrong. Russia has had numerous opportunities to expand its borders it has specifically not taken. It is not a zombie, rabid machine eating up other peoples’ land. Russia and Georgia have a deep-seated, historic antagonism which is driving this conflict.
Badtux, that is interesting. I don’t think the Kosovo analogies are the best ones here, since, even though that was fought without UN blessing and with Russian opposition, it still had a large degree of international legitimacy because of the unequivocal reports of ethnic cleansing. In South Ossetia, given the many restrictions on travel there, independent verification of atrocities and war crimes is far harder to come by, and I am uncomfortable relying on partisan sources of information. I think a better analogy is Chechnya, which is specifically why I really don’t think Russia will try to annex or occupy Georgia. All Putin has to do is prove he can still reliably lead a military campaign (it is interesting to note that Putin, and not Medvedev, rushed to the scene to take charge).
JeanE, one place to start would be clicking on the “Georgia” tag in the post above. There you will find countless entries and links to the context of this conflict. We’ve been following events there for a couple of years. And it is not hard to find other blogs that provide good context as well (my complaint here, recall, was that those sorts of blogs were not being linked). Even the New York Times does a pretty good job of reviewing the history of the conflict.
Blake, public statements are different from what is actually going on behind the scenes. I suggest calling around to see where their primary activity is really focused. It might have changed, too, in the last couple of days — like all conflicts, this one is fluid.
Josh, Onnik normally is a good source of information about the Caucasus. I haven’t been following his roundups closely (and I’m sympathetic to the charges of an Armenian slant, since his beat is Armenia and he lives in Yerevan), so I can’t say much more. But if that’s true, then it’s probably for two reasons: a) American blogs, by their sheer volume, are saying a lot more, and b) at least yesterday, many blogs and news sources coming from Georgia had gone silent, with some people speculating about Russian “cyberactivists.”
As for McCain… well, I really haven’t seen any reason to expect subtlety out of him yet, so why should we expect any now? The difficult thing about this conflict is exactly what made granting Kosovo independence so problematic: both sides have committed grave atrocities, so neither really has a moral advantage. The real opprobrium here should be on Russia, for quite obviously provoking this kind of response with the last several years of intrusion into Georgian territory, military strikes on Georgia proper, and the buildup of troops along the border in the week before Georgia moved on Tskhinvali.
Katy and Mair, I would never deny war is hell. I hope Russia chooses to abide by Saakashvili’s ceasefire so your people can find some respite.
Mockmook, umm, what? Explain yourself please, and show your work.
unaha-closp, I think Turkey is involved, at least marginally. Their segment of BTC was nicked just before this conflict exploded. I still think it’s a bit far-fetched to draw an operational link between the PKK and Russia despite Russia’s previous support for them, but the energy issue is an enormous one here.
Time: 8/10/2008, 10:52 pm
Joshua,
Kosovo is exactly what makes this bad for America. Khalilizad is asking Russia to respect Georgia’s “territorial integrity” (today, UN Sec Council) and Russia is too smooth to throw Kosovo back in our faces.
Time: 8/11/2008, 6:27 am
hehe good point about Ralph peters , he can’t defend the “young democracy” because it ain’t one
Time: 8/11/2008, 6:29 am
TO: All
RE: Sudatenland Revisited
“Russia says it will not move troops beyond breakaway provinces….” — Fox News
It used to be just ONE province.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/11/2008, 6:32 am
P.S. As I recall, Hitler used his strong desire to protect the ethnic Germans living in the Sudatenland as justification for his invasion.
Time: 8/11/2008, 6:35 am
TO: Joshua Foust
RE: Not….
“Chuck Pelto, wrong. Russia has had numerous opportunities to expand its borders it has specifically not taken.” — Joshua Foust
….until NOW.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/11/2008, 9:26 am
Surprising you haven’t cited Doug Muir’s posts in A Fistful of Euros. He was based in Yerevan until recently:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/chess-my-ass/
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/georgia-played/
Also Thomas De Waal, the British journalist who has years of experience in the Caucasus, had a good piece in the Guardian yesterday:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia
Time: 8/11/2008, 9:41 am
AFOE has been good at pointing out the common sense issues behind the conflict. I haven’t linked them because I read their posts and think, “oh yeah, that makes sense.”
De Waal comes off as unhinged. You cannot place sole blame for this conflict at Georgia’s feet.
Time: 8/11/2008, 10:15 am
I don’t think he does lay sole blame on Georgia. De Waal is a journalist who has been very critical of Russia’s actions in Chechnya, Azerbaijan (see his excellent books on these) and elsewhere including Georgia. He does raise a question which seems to be missing in all the Great Game analysis - who cares about the regular civilians of South Ossetia?
Time: 8/11/2008, 1:05 pm
TO: All
RE: The Latest
“The latest developments indicate that Russian troops have invaded Georgia proper from the separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces are locked up in fighting around South Ossetia.” — Fox News
I wonder if Joshua is paying attention here…..
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/11/2008, 1:36 pm
Chuck, they can invade all they want, but they won’t stay. They’re just trying to force Saakashvili out of power. And the longer they’re there, the longer Russia’s financial markets tumble. Occupation is not a sustainable option.
Time: 8/11/2008, 2:13 pm
TO: Joshua Foust
RE: Are You….
“Chuck, they can invade all they want, but they won’t stay.” — Joshua Foust
….wrong? Or is StrategyPage wrong?
“Thousands of ethnic Abkhazians and Ossetians fled to the new statelets. Since both of these areas were on the Russian border, Russia saw an opportunity to quiet things down (they did not want an ethnic based guerilla war going on along their border). So Russia offered its services as mediator and peacekeeper in the early 1990s, and peace was restored. The UN agreed all this, and a reluctant Georgia went along. But after that, the Russians refused to leave….” — StrategyPage @
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20080810.aspx
Who’s ‘right’ here?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. Care to place a small ‘wager’ on your assertion?
Time: 8/11/2008, 2:24 pm
Chuck, the situation now is different than in the early ’90s. I don’t know whether to say you’re misreading things or StrategyPage is because I can’t be bothered to read their site. There’s rarely any insight there.
The difference is that Russia had a valid legal pretext for staying in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Laugh at the “legal” part if you want, but Russia does have a pretty good track record of leaning back on legal and moral justifications for its actions, even if the explanations are a stretch. It doesn’t have much interest in annexing potentially difficult-to-administer territories. Georgia qualifies as one such territory. South Ossetia, probably not. (In fact, I don’t think it could stay afloat as an independent state.) It’s much easier for Russia to have a submissive government running things in Tbilisi.
Time: 8/11/2008, 2:25 pm
Chuck, Strategy page is reliably wrong. They have a record of making weird, unsupportable assertions about conflicts in play, and their refusal to source a single thing means no one can ever check their work or their reasoning.
Even STRATFOR is a far better source of information.
Time: 8/11/2008, 2:27 pm
TO: Nathan
RE: Different?
“Chuck, the situation now is different than in the early ’90s.” — Nathan
Have the Russians left? If not, why not?
TO: Joshua Foust
RE: StrategyPage Is Wrong
“….Strategy page is reliably wrong. They have a record of making weird, unsupportable assertions about conflicts in play, and their refusal to source a single thing means no one can ever check their work or their reasoning.” — Joshua Foust
Prove it, please.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/11/2008, 2:43 pm
I think your dismissive attitude about Russia having designs on annexing Georgia is incorrect. And I say this being a fan of most of your analysis.
Look, I think it’s fair to say that Moscow isn’t looking to be blatant about it, but lets be honest, Moscow doesn’t do things like protect ethnic minorities from oppression. It’s not their thing. They don’t now, and they never have. Russian involvement in protecting Orthodox minorities in the Ottoman empire is a great example. They didn’t do it for altruistic reasons.
So while they look at Georgia’s latest actions as a way to screw with Georgia at the least, it’s hard to make the case that Moscow doesn’t consider the possibility of annexing Georgia.
Time: 8/11/2008, 4:55 pm
TO: Registan
RE: Spammer?
Why am I now considered a ’spammer’ by this site? When I tried to say….
TO: Nathan
RE: Different?
“Chuck, the situation now is different than in the early ’90s.” — Nathan
Have the Russians left? If not, why not?
TO: Joshua Foust
RE: StrategyPage Is Wrong
“….Strategy page is reliably wrong. They have a record of making weird, unsupportable assertions about conflicts in play, and their refusal to source a single thing means no one can ever check their work or their reasoning.” — Joshua Foust
Prove it, please.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/11/2008, 5:15 pm
Chuck, the anti-spam system decided you are a spammer. Don’t take it personal.
If you don’t get the differences I already stated above and don’t understand why staying in Abkhazia and South Ossetia carries negligible costs while staying in Georgia would carry astronomical costs, I’m not going to waste my time explaining it to you. You’ve got your conclusion, and I’m not going to budge it.
Time: 8/11/2008, 7:08 pm
It’s not difficult to imagine that in the long run this could be the beginning of another long Russian march south into Central Asia and the Caucasus. It will likely be decades, possibly longer, before we find out.
For now, I think that Russia will be satisfied with with SO, Abkhazia and a friendly government in Tbilisi, but I’m no position to make predictions.
My question is, what affect, if any does this have on Kazakhstan, with its large community of Russians?
Time: 8/11/2008, 8:13 pm
“My question is, what affect, if any does this have on Kazakhstan, with its large community of Russians? ” by James
This was the reason that Nazarbayev moved his capital to Astana (northern Kazakhstan) and became a president for lifetime to keep his country together. %40+ of Kazakhstan is Russian.
Time: 8/11/2008, 8:31 pm
TO: Nathan
RE: Spammer? Moi?
“Chuck, the anti-spam system decided you are a spammer. Don’t take it personal.” — Nathan
Actually, I’ve seen this ploy used before in other venues; don’t care to hear what the fellow has to say? Declare him a ’spammer’ and let him be silenced.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[If you can’t convince them, silence them.]
Time: 8/12/2008, 10:33 am
Chuck, I’ll repeat what I just emailed you. You’re not important enough for me to target your comments. Spam Karma 2 thinks your comments are spam and I can’t seem to convince it otherwise. And really, I don’t particularly care to try all that hard.
Time: 8/13/2008, 10:55 am
TO: All
RE: The Russians in Georgia
The dust hasn’t settled yet. The information is still sketchy, at best, but as I stated earlier, this resembles German aggression against Czechoslovakia vis-a-vis Sudetenland.
My question is, how far away from the Russian front-line-trace is that pipeline?
Is it in range of Russian rocket or other long-range artillery?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[All warfare is part of a massive game of chess.]
Time: 8/14/2008, 4:57 am
TO: All
RE: Forget About….
….my question regarding front line trace and the oil pipeline.
Don’t need to shell the pipeline when you occupy the terminal at the port.
See….
Regards,
Chuck(le)
P.S. I notice that neither Joshua, nor anyone else, has taken up my offer of a small wager on whether the Russians stay or go home.
Time: 8/14/2008, 12:17 pm
TO: All
RE: More Evidence….
….that my appreciation of the situation is more accurate than some other peoples’….
….HERE!
Enjoy,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/18/2008, 11:49 am
TO: All
RE: Soooo….
….the Russians say they’re withdrawing forces from the theater of operation.
How many are they going to withdraw?
How many are they going to keep there?
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 8/30/2008, 1:41 pm
TO: All
RE: More Evidence….
…that my analysis of the situation is superior to these Russian shills.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
Time: 10/1/2008, 1:28 pm
Did you hear? Russian agressor attacks USA…
More info here: hotusanewx.blogspot.com
SHOKED!!
Time: 8/9/2008, 3:27 pm
What about SWJ? http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/08/flash-point-south-ossetia/