It’s gone over the brink: just one day after declaring a cease-fire in South Ossetia, fighting there has reached its highest level in years.
In the violence this week, separatist fighters from South Ossetia used rocket-propelled grenades to blow up a Georgian armored personnel carrier, killing two soldiers and wounding six others, said Shota Utiashvili, a Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman. As many as eight Georgian civilians were killed Thursday in a mortar attack on Avnevi, a village in the border region, he said.
On the South Ossetian side, about 15 people were killed, according to the South Ossetian separatist government Web site. Another 20 were wounded when villages came under fire from Georgian positions, said Tamara Keleksayeva, a spokeswoman for the separatist government.
Potentially complicating matters, about 300 volunteers from Russia have arrived in South Ossetia to aid in the fight, she said.
Yes, I’m sure they were all volunteers. But let the finger-pointing begin anyway.
Russia was outraged as Georgia mounted its fresh offensive. “Georgia’s step is absolutely incomprehensible and shows that the Georgian leadership has zero credit of trust,” said Yuri Popov, the Russian envoy sent to the region to mediate peace talks.Georgia blames Russia for inciting the separatists. “It is all a result of hysterical militarisation, constant military rhetoric and real military propaganda conducted by Russian television stations,” Mr Saakashvili said, urging the two countries to “pool our efforts to end this madness”.
There were reports that a convoy of thirty buses and seven military trucks filled with Georgian soldiers had been spotted near Gori, at the southern edge of South Ossetia, waiting at a checkpoint. Abkhazia said that it had put its forces on combat alert in response to the deepening crisis.
Russia is not a disinterested partner in the region, and no one should be pretending it is. While Saakashvili might be overstating things when he accused Russia of trying to scuttle Georgia’s bid to join NATO, Russia was certainly being provocative when it orbited fighters over South Ossetia during Condoleeza Rice’s visit to Tblisi last month.
And so it goes: Civil.ge is reporting that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev vowed to defend Russian citizens wherever they are. Since the majority of people living in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have been issues Russian passports over the last decade, this is almost certainly a vow to insert itself in the war on the opposite side of Georgia—by, say, bombing military bases in Georgia proper. And if Georgia has indeed shot down two Russian jets, then this conflict really can be considered an actual war, and not just the latest and most severe skirmish (the Georgian military is reportedly withdrawing its troops from Iraq to help in the fight at home).
Steve LeVine highlights the seriousness of this fight as well—Georgia’s pipeline, which carries 1% of the world’s oil supply, matters tremendously to the U.S. (More on this below.)
Markets in Russia, too, have taken a big notice as well:
The ruble dropped the most in 3 1/2 years and Russia’s 30-stock Micex Index fell to a 22-month low after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said “war has started” in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia.
Credit-defaults swaps, a measure of bond risk, climbed the most since March after Georgia’s Interior Ministry said jets bombed the towns of Gori and Kareli near the breakaway region of South Ossetia.
The ruble fell the most against the central bank’s basket of dollars and euros since that gauge was introduced in February 2005. The Micex plummeted, bringing its decline this year to 28 percent after oil slid 19 percent…
“We didn’t need this,” said Ivan Mazalov, who helps manage $5 billion in shares of companies from the former Soviet Union at Prosperity Capital Management in Moscow. “It’s not going to break the Russian economy, but war is bad for investor sentiment.”
Right now it’s not much more than a hiccup, but even Russian markets respond poorly to war.
It is interesting that this fighting happens right when the BTC pipeline, one of Georgia’s big money-makers, gets shut down. Yesterday Steve LeVine noted that a pumping station in eastern Turkey had been attacked, causing a spike in world oil prices. The Kurdish Workers Party, or PKK, claimed responsibility for the attack, though local fire fighters and law enforcement officials remain unwilling to rule out an accident.
Not to connect too many dots, but last decade it was widely believed that exiled PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan had absconded from Damascus to Moscow after Turkey convinced the Syrians to expel him, though he wound up in Italy. This was because, at least in part, Russia has declined to add the PKK to its list of terror groups, and Russia has the primary supplier of weapons to the PKK for a long time now.
Nothing is certain on that front, but it is interesting to notice the symmetry of issues now facing Georgia.
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It’s interest that the BTC pipeline is shut down and, basically, all the oil from Baku to the ruptured section of the pipeline is free for the taking.
I think Georgia will tap that oil, calling an emergency.
This will anger Azerbaijan.
MSNBC reported that as many as 1,000 people have died.
Russia Today’s repeated chiron has stated “WAR IS ON”
Russia Today is best for brief clips of the action, but there is no end to their pro-Russian bias. CNN, on the other hand, presents only Georgian bias. Of the two, Russia has a far, far more sophisticated information operation.
I link to this article on my blog, which is about the 2006 flare-up. Includes many, many quotes from a variety of “expert” sources, including, at least, the U.S. and Russian foreign policy “establishments.” It also emphasizes the pipeline issue.
But, far better than anything so far, for updates, has been wikipedia. They have people reading the South Ossetian government’s website, among other sources, for updates, and have an easy-to-read section describing the various reactions of countries or organizations in the world.
Is there a possibility that Russia will overrun and occupy Georgia?
I doubt they will occupy Georgia. But even if they do, we will be in no [moral] position to criticize them, for obvious reasons.
What obvious reasons?
I think Qiu is referring to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as excluding from the U.S. the “right” to protest the invasion and occupation of a sovereign nation.
But there is little chance Russia will fully occupy Tblisi and force out the government. It’s more likely this will be more like the original round of fighting in 1992, with a lot of people killed and no real movement one way or another on the issue of South Ossetia’s status.
Really, I’m surprised more people aren’t playing up the NATO angle. To me, this seems a pretty transparent attempt by Russia to scuttle Georgia’s ascension.
What I’m hearing is that Georgia could not join NATO with South Ossetia as it was three days ago (also the Abkhaz situation), so the NATO thing can’t(?) be the issue.
I also expect Russia to only move troops into South Ossetia as long as Georgia doesn’t try anything radical (cut off Russian troops by moving into North Ossetia? ha!) or if Georgia starts eliminating numbers from the Russian population centers in Georgia (This CIA map shows two on the coast, one near Armenia). So, unless Saakashvili goes crazy, Tblisi is safe.
By the way, for ancient history buffs, the Ossetians are the Alans.
I think georgians caught russians by surprise and it looks like they are at least one step ahead of russians. I think all these years when russians were rattling about how they can punish Georgia, Ukrain, Estonia, etc., they were really hoping that nobody would challenge them. So georgians did, and russians are taken aback and they do not know what to do. They got entangled into the war just because they did not have any other option.
Everything will depend now on development in first days of the conflict. If georgian troops are able to hold strong on the positions they have taken then russians will be in the attacking side which will lead to heavy losses for russians and serious damage to their reputation. In this case the conflict will be long but georgians will regain the control over the country and will have strong negotiating positions.
If georgians withdraw from the Ossetia, then everything will return to its status quo.
In other words, on my oppinion time in Ossetia plays against russians, long military developments will be deminishing for their power and reputation.
It is like in a movie about a gang of brigands or pirates: Russia is a power leader challanged by somebody and has to accept the challenge, everybody around is watching, and if the leader can not win he loses.
The majority of South Ossetians want union with Russia. Saakashvili seems insane to try to overrun SO by force. If he had succeeded the SO populace would be outraged at him. I hope the people here who say that Russia likely won’t overrun Georgia have it right. Still, I can’t imagine Georgia being able to win against Russia in a war. Perhaps Russia will fight all the way to SO’s claimed border, and then annex SO. South Ossetians might welcome that.
Inkan,
Do you have polling data about S.O. desires?
I think a union of Ossetians is a no-brainer. And I’m for a union of Kurds, and, and another for Pushtuns. How about an independent Ossetia with foreign policy run by Russia, like America runs the foreign policy of some “independent” Pacific island countries? Not sure what Georgia gets there, cash, next year’s 1st round draft pick?
Russia will end up alienating European states that were originally politically neutral and economically cooperative towards it. It’s one thing to use economic strong arm tactics. This is on another order entirely. Out of pure speculation, I think there will be a more common European policy towards Russia, rather than individual states cutting deals, economic or otherwise.
The Baltic states must be thanking their stars that they’re in NATO right about now.
Josh SN, seriously, please don’t be for any of those things. They will each result in horrifying warfare.
Well, not if everyone was for them! I write about this stuff a lot at my language & conflict website, including how the most natural limits of a government are language communities. I’m too proud to say that some people are even agreeing.
Seriously, it is one thing to be for something, it is another to act on that belief. Beneath the obvious levels of arming or funding such groups, I don’t even get involved with such movements by, say, joining a group or, even, linking to a website.
I also believe in international action, but obviously not like Iraq. If India, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Australia, France and Germany had been on board from the get-go, I think it would have gone very differently. Heck, that list basically included Russia in 2003.
If you think that resembles McCain’s “League of Democracies” or similar calls from the far left, I’d say you were mistaken.
It’s just a (not yet existing) caucus in the United Nations.
Old School Boy, The “obvious reasons” are exactly what Foust mentioned.
p.s. Saakashvilli studied law at Columbia University in the mid nineties, and from what i hear from some of his ex-class mates – he really, really hates Russians.
Qiu, to borrow your phrase, this is for obvious reasons.
Kong Qiu,
And what you’ve heard from his ex-class mates gives russians moral rights to occupy Georgia? Saakashvilly did not attack Russia.
By the way, I do not think russians can occupy Georgia.
Russia is a big bully, and bullies can’t fight when there is resistance. Bullies prefer to threaten, not fight.
If the war is long enough, russians will lose moral war.
I’m amazed we’ve not attracted any of the hordes of Russian commenters leaving charming messages about the savage inhumanity of Georgians and the bottomless well of Russia’s love and concern for the rights of all oppressed peoples. (Those who want a taste can watch Russian news broadcasts.)
In “it’s going to get worse before it gets better” news, Abkhazia is striking Georgian forces in Kodori.
Also worth checking out:
-Yulia Latynina on the South Ossetian business venture that Russia is so valiantly defending (via the comments over at Steve LeVine’s O&G.
-Wu Wei and Doug Merrill of afoe are in Tbilisi.
Also, those who read Russian may want to check out cyxymu and drugoi. Both have lots of photos of destruction in Gori (warning: graphic photos).
I’m amazed we’ve not attracted any of the hordes of Russian commenters leaving charming messages about the savage inhumanity of Georgians and the bottomless well of Russia’s love and concern for the rights of all oppressed peoples. (Those who want a taste can watch Russian news broadcasts.)
And a good thing too. Be thankful also you’ve not attracted the pro-Russia leftists (aka ‘tankies’) who’ve spent most of the past seven years bleating about ‘Western imperialism’ in Iraq and Afghanistan and who can now be seen swarming all over CiF in praise of Mark Almond’s excreble piece on the situation.
We all appreciate the complexity of the situation but there is nary a word of condemnation for Russia – in striking contrast to the sub ed’s strapline
I also heard Almond banging on about authoritarianism and poverty in Georgia and neglecting to mention that precisely the same things are true of Russia.
Sorry, that last line should read:
I also heard Almond on Radio 4 banging on about authoritarianism and poverty in Georgia and neglecting to mention that precisely the same things are true of Russia.
The sophistry of the international community’s reaction is remarkable and painful in equal measure. With a few notable exceptions (i.e. Baltic states, Poland, Sweden, others), there’s been this general talk of condemning the “violence” and urging both sides to show “restraint”. It’s not as if violence were this impersonal hurricane that broke over the Caucasus and ruined the happy lives of Russians, Ossetians, and Georgians previously living in harmony. Violence is caused by human beings, and here it is clearly a callous political tool engineered by Russia.
This is a simplistic analogy, but imagine you’re undergoing a home invasion, the police show up and start blaring from bullhorns for you to show “restraint” as the burglars destroy your property and threaten your physical safety and urge you to peacefully negotiate them out of your home.
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