Karimov Forever!

The “success” of Kazakhstan’s recent political reforms and the just-completed parliamentary election have led some to fear that other Central Asian states will attempt to emulate Kazakhstan. A few months ago, President Nazarbaev said that doing so would be a wonderful idea for Kyrgyzstan — a sentiment that he certainly feels more strongly about as he cleans house with a one-party legislature behind him.

A considerable amount of attention has been paid to whether or not Karimov will stay or go the manner in which Karimov will justify staying on as Uzbekistan’s president. In their most recent report on Uzbekistan (PDF), the International Crisis Group sums up the political situation nicely:

Early speculation that he might change the law to extend his term or even step aside for a pliant successor, while maintaining most of his power behind the scenes, now seems highly improbable. Still, his plans are unclear; the law requires that a presidential campaign be announced six months in advance but that date, for a December 2007 election, has passed. Some now
wonder if Karimov will even bother with the formality of an official election.

One guess is good as another as to what will happen, but the recent celebration of Samarkand’s 2,750th anniversary gives some clue about things to come. RFE/RL reports that calls for Karimov to stay on as president were repeated throughout the festivities. Unsolicited praise came from, for example, a teacher:

“You recreated Uzbekistan. You recreated Samarkand. You introduced Uzbekistan, its people, and Samarkand to the world,” the man said.

“Our people are forever grateful. We are all in a great mood. All of what we have, I declare, is the result of your leadership,” he continued. “Dear and honorable Islam Abduganievich [Karimov], we, the people, wish you strength and health and wealth in your efforts to lead our people in the cause of such great achievements. May Allah protect you from evil.”

It’s not quite as direct as the calls for Turkmenbashi to stay on forever from back in 2004 that the report also mentions, but might the praise be a hint of a “grassroots” campaign to keep Karimov in office so that the wonders of his rule may continue? Such a scenario seems most likely for a few reasons. First, such an outcome would allow Karimov, like Niazov and Nazarbaev, a gloss of deniability. He, of course, wants to step down in favor of bright and energetic young men and women in order to spend time with his family, but what kind of appreciation would he be showing to his beloved people were he to do something so selfish? On the other side of the coin, such a scenario gives a (low-quality, easily-chipped-off) sheen of democratic legitimacy. Of course that is most useful domestically, but it is also a useful tool for friendly politicians in the West who want closer relations with Uzbekistan.

Another hint of a popular campaign for Karimov to stay on can be found in a recent poll of Uzbek public opinion performed by the state controlled Ijtimoiy Fikr (natch!). 98.5% of respondents said that Islam Abduganievich is the “guarantor of stability, strengthening of independence and successful solution of problems” in Uzbekistan. Large percentages of the respondents also said that things have been improving in Uzbekistan and that they are on track to get even better in the future. So, of course, if things are so great, there’s no reason to muck things up with a new president. Right?

Karimov himself is tight-lipped on what’s to come. His speech in Samarkand only got remotely political when discussing the improvements that have been made in the city since independence.

UzA, which is the source for the second photo, has a story on the Samarkand festival as well.