Registan.net

Lately, it has become increasingly undeniable that Russia tried to fire a missile at a Georgian radio station. Georgia seems determined to move the case up to the UN and convene a more formal hearing. I would imagine they’re sick of Russia’s continuous stream of air raids on their territory, and are looking for some international legitimacy to their complaint.

They have good cause to be worried. Russia’s military is on its own surge, rapidly building out capabilities and equipment that was lost to the post-Soviet decay. More worrisome that mere equipment buildup is Putin’s push to turn the SCO from an economic bloc to a military one. I would wager China isn’t as enthused about that, as they don’t want to be put in the position of having to challenge the U.S. dominance (both countries benefit too much from the status quo).

Regardless, it is difficult to deny Russia is trying to reassert itself militarily, as well as diplomatically and economically. In a broad sense, the idea of Russia Back As Great Power can be seen in the push to punish kalashnikov counterfeiters—just another way in which Russia is attempting to become a normal, functional country again (though whether Russia ever was a normal, functional country is up for debate).

What this ultimately means isn’t at all clear. Russia must become used to the two-sided (or three-sided, if you’re feeling generous) contest in its near abroad once more; and it must realize that, far from a Britain feverishly trying to protect India, it must now deal with hungry (and angry) oil sharks that will not hesitate to push back, and push back hard, should the need come. If I were a small-ish country and it came down to a choice between Russia and China, for example, I’d choose China.

So Georgia is right to be worried. Despite Saakashvili’s sometimes childish behavior (borne of his assumption of the U.S. automatically and always taking his side), Georgia has every right to protest Russia’s involvement in its affairs, and should be entitled to compensation. On the other side, Russia should be willing to pay Georgia damages for its illegal and unwarranted incursions into Georgia sovereignty.

Of course, like everything else involving Georgia and Russia, nothing will actually happen. Georgia will flap its arms, get a few western countries to coo, “yes, what a terrible thing” and beyond that nothing will come of it. Which is too bad, as it might be an interesting case to see just how or when or if Russia’s growing power might be constrained. Alas.

Stumble it!