The New New Not-Great Game Continues Apace
One of my biggest frustrations with Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov hasn’t been anything about his regime, but how the U.S. seemed to have rolled over and conceded any useful relationship to Russia (despite the tremendous opportunity a not-Turkmenbashi presented). Indeed, while Russia has sent extremely senior officials, including President Putin himself, to visit Ashgabat, the U.S. has mustered up a brief foray by some Deputy Assistant Undersecretary of State or something. And it has seemed, as Stomatologbashi inked deals with Russian and Kazakhstan to send gas north, rather than west or south (Iran is its own subject, which will be explored later), that the U.S. (and Europe for that matter) were content to just let it happen.
Except that recently, two interesting things happened. Vice-Premier Sergey Naryshkin was snubbed when he tried to visit and discuss the deal, and another one of Condoleeza Rice’s underlings (though this one is actually responsible for Central Asia) traveled to the country and was told that Turkmenistan wants to diversify its “carbohydrate” resources. Since I’m assuming they didn’t sit down to talk about bread, that might indicate Berdymukhammedov is taking cues from Nazarbayev, and trying for a multi-vector foreign policy. For once.
Maybe he’s figuring out that you wind up better off when the big players are bickering over your resource wealth. Or maybe he doesn’t want to freeze out the United States, not just yet. Regardless, it was an encouraging sign on his part, even if the U.S. continues to send him the message that he does not matter.
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Tags: Turkmenistan, Caspian, Gas.
Posted by Joshua Foust on June 29th, 2007
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Comments
Time: 6/30/2007, 7:32 am
Joshua, an interesting post. I think the U.S. has simply lacked the same drive, shrewdness and local partners that produced Baku-Ceyhan. For all his flaws as an institution-builder, Heydar Aliyev relished taking on the Kremlin, and, along with Shevardnadze, had the canniness and experience to triumph. When the U.S. got behind them, defying the bluster of most of the oil companies and some academics, Aliyev and Shevardnadze also had the leverage. Conversely, the U.S. from the beginning
gave in to the absurd pretense by both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that they were doing the U.S. a favor by considering a trans-Caspian pipeline spoke. Nazarbayev, Niyazov and now Berdymukhammedov have lacked the vision and courage to suffer the short-term consequences of challenging Russia’s position on the sea in exchange for the exponentially higher long-term benefits of obtaining this independent route. I fear now that it may be too late. Steve at www.oilandglory.com
Time: 6/30/2007, 7:32 am
Joshua, an interesting post. I think the U.S. has simply lacked the same drive, shrewdness and local partners that produced Baku-Ceyhan. For all his flaws as an institution-builder, Heydar Aliyev relished taking on the Kremlin, and, along with Shevardnadze, had the canniness and experience to triumph. When the U.S. got behind them, defying the bluster of most of the oil companies and some academics, Aliyev and Shevardnadze also had the leverage. Conversely, the U.S. from the beginning
gave in to the absurd pretense by both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that they were doing the U.S. a favor by considering a trans-Caspian pipeline spoke. Nazarbayev, Niyazov and now Berdymukhammedov have lacked the vision and courage to suffer the short-term consequences of challenging Russia’s position on the sea in exchange for the exponentially higher long-term benefits of obtaining this independent route. I fear now that it may be too late. Steve at www.oilandglory.com