Matt, IMHO a military coup is unlikely because the regular army is not a big deal in Turkmenistan. The main components of Niyazov’s repression apparatus are/were a) the neo-KGB and b) the Presidential Guard which also occasionally serves a as a death squad. There might be coup plotting in the neo-KGB, yes.

This is the reason why I think that the Niyazov/North Korea comparison doesn’t add up. It may be sexy in the press, and the grotesque personality cult is indeed very similar, yet there are fundamental differences: a) in North Korea, the Communist Party apparatus and its sub-organisations are very developed and all-present (not so in Turkmenistan where the presidential party is basically an empty shell); b) the military are huge and have a lot of political-economic weight in North Korea which is not the case in Turkmenistan.

Expect some major trouble…the other parties jockeying for power arent going to tolerate living under subordination a second time around. First Central Asian military coup anyone?

And if anyone mentions IFIs/IMF etc, I’m going to want to slap them.

I was planning on flying back home to Turkmenistan with him in May after the semester was over, I wonder if this will be safe/viable.

I still have to process this, I really thought he was going to be one of those whack-jobs that live forever.

No matter what Lavrov & US Embassy say about ’smooth, lawful transition’ there are some serious gaps (as the BBC pointed out, hysterically) in the constitutional law in TK, that will impact the next two months. I can’t reconcile this feeling of euphoria with the sad truth that this could be really messy…I mean, for those of us that had traveled to Ashgabat, this guy was certifiably nuts and scared the hell out of his entire population…but what follows in such a power vacuum? Stay tuned…

This will be interesting. And I agree that Bouygues will probably shed the most tears. And German doctors…

“Every self will taste death. You will be paid your wages in full on the Day of Resurrection. Anyone who is distanced from the Fire and admitted to the Garden has triumphed. The life of the world is just the enjoyment of delusion. (Qu’ran al-Kerim, Surah Al ‘Imran: 185)”

Well, however, I would really not be surprised if he enacted it as well as his coming resurrection. Either case, the one who will weep most is his favorite marble palace contractor Bouygues (http://www.bouygues.fr/fr/index.asp) I think… LOL

The most interesting question now is: what, and who, next for Turkmenistan for he was the state apparatus and regime. IMO, at present, that can be everything from a ‘Somalia light’ kind of state implosion to a surprisingly smooth, Putin-like succession by someone who was already behind the screens (in that respect, the actual position and role of his son Marat was always a very shady matter; but it can also be someone else).

Let’s see.