Foreign ministers of OSCE member states are meeting in Brussels discussing sundry issues (their press office has sent out seven releases yesterday and today). One of the issues on the agenda is Kazakhstan’s quest to chair the organization in 2009. Kazakhstan received a prestige boost ahead of the meeting as the Parliamentary Assembly recommended it host the assembly’s 2008 annual session. Gazeta.kz also reports that the president of the assembly, Sweden’s Goran Lennmarker, voiced support for Kazakhstan’s chairmanship bid. Kazakhstan’s candidacy also received kind words from Norway.
Tension between Eastern and Western members over the role of the OSCE came up both in general and in relation to the Kazakh bid. Sergei Lavrov said the organization is neglecting its political and military role in favor of human rights and elections and that it must relaunch itself as a human rights organization if that is what it truly wants to be. Russia also complained that the organization is becoming a two-tiered organization composed of the United States and Europe treating former Soviet states as lesser members. This relates directly to Kazakhstan’s chairmanship bid, which Russia supports, because many Western states are telling Kazakhstan it must reform if it is to become chair. (TOL, by the way, has an interesting article on the OSCE’s identity and the Kazakh bid for chairing the organization.)
President Nazarbaev is in Brussels, adding a bit of lobbying for Kazakhstan’s bid (and cutting energy deals), but the smart money is on him being disappointed. The US and some European states are more open to a possible 2011 chairmanship by Kazakhstan. The Washington Time notes that this is seeming out of step with US policy towards Kazakhstan and that there are risks involved in denying Kazakhstan.
“There will be no more incentive for progress if Kazakhstan doesn’t get it,” said Yevgeny Zhovtis, the country’s leading human rights campaigner.
“If they do, I don’t say they will necessarily behave better, but the context will be better. If not, the anti-American forces will become stronger and more public, Kazakhstan will move closer to Russia, and repression will be worse.”
Another Western diplomat noted that the issue comes after Russia and its former colonies have been demanding efforts to make the OSCE human rights and election monitoring less intrusive — changes the West refuses to consider.
“If Kazakhstan is turned down, there’s a good chance the hard-line countries could make it harder for OSCE missions to operate in their countries, cooperate less with the election monitoring missions and refuse to pass the budget,” the Western diplomat said.
The way out of this difficult situation now being considered is a compromise promoted by Belgium that would see the selection of OSCE chairs for 2009, 2010, and 2011. The Washington Post reports Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried as discussing the plan which, according to Ferghana.ru, would see Greece as the 2009 chair, Lithuania as 2010′s, and Kazakhstan taking the position in 2011. This would give Kazakhstan something more than hope of chairing the OSCE while also allowing those Western states who say that Kazakhstan has not yet come far enough to lead an organization committed to human rights and democracy.
Ferghana.ru adds that an unnamed source says that Nazarbaev is prepared to back down if failure looks likely.
It seems in the meantime that official Astana itself has decided to call it off. Well-informed and trustworthy sources there say that Nazarbayev himself was extremely critical of the idea of OSCE chairmanship at a closed conference the other day. It figures, if Astana doesn’t want to lose face.
I am not sure that too much stock should be put into that, but it is a possibility. Kazakhstan is after the chairmanship primarily for prestige. It is not a make-or-break proposition for the country, and it seems highly unlikely that Kazakhstan would change its foreign policy course or put at too great risk the prestige it already enjoys for a losing proposition.
This post was written by...
Nathan Hamm – author of 2039 posts on Registan.net.
Nathan founded Registan.net in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural factors shape risks and opportunities. Follow him on Twitter or drop him a line.
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It could be in a way a countermeasure to confine Borat, as Nazarbayev sees it. This would give Kazakhstan something more than hope of chairing the OSCE while also allowing those Western states who say that Kazakhstanis drink fermented horse’s urine and throw jews down the well.
Prestige, in other words and sense of accomplishment.