Comments on: Kazakhstan & The Georgia-Russia Conflict

By: ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Georgia: Little Engine that Can?

ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Georgia: Little Engine that Can? — Sat, 14 Oct 2006 15:52:58 +0000

[...] So what does Georgia have going for it? Underdog status. Successful democratic revolution. Bullied by Russia and mostly importantly: real estate! Georgia’s betweenness makes it a key gateway for Azeri, Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas headed west and we all know alternative pipelines through Iran and Armenia aren’t going to happen anytime soon not to mention that Iraqi oil won’t be coming online anytime soon (which goes through Turkey). Thus Russia is working to keep Kazakhstan from choosing sides. Yet, despite Kazakh investment in Georgia, they too are in a position to apply pressure to Tbilisi should they feel their investments are in danger. On top of that, the ongoing row between Georgia and Russia is set to hit little Armenia hard which could damage relations and push them further into Russia’s arms. But Armenia is another story. [...]

By: Bill Walsh

Bill Walsh — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 23:32:46 +0000

Good point, Josh. And certainly, Western countries who may be worried about conflicts with Russia or China down the road should definitely use NATO to assist Kazakhstan to develop some decent military capabilities, or way down the road, maybe even some joint air bases.

By: Sean R. Roberts

Sean R. Roberts — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 17:45:24 +0000

The other factor that should not be forgotten here is that Astana may also hold a certain pleasure at seeing somebody stick it to Moscow. Kazakh nationalism only goes so far in the country’s relations with Russia, but there remains a certain drive in Kazakhstan to exert its independence of Russia. In the long-term, it is this pride in independence that may make Kazakhstan a significant regional competitor with Russia, at least in the economic sphere.

By: Josh

Josh — Thu, 12 Oct 2006 03:24:17 +0000

I think Kazakhstan’s growing relationship with NATO will come to play in this as well. Russia doesn’t like NATO, and if it feels itself constrained on three sides, it may back off some of its more aggressive policies. Then again, it might lash out.

By: Bill Walsh

Bill Walsh — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 19:02:19 +0000

Very interesting post, Nathan. Yeah, Kazakhstan’s got quite the tricky game to play in Georgia. On the one hand, they’re somewhat finlandized by necessity in foreign policy. On the other, it is in their absolute interest to strengthen pretty much all the “NIS” along the Russian periphery, for obvious reasons…