Kazakhstan & The Georgia-Russia Conflict
Given Kazakhstan’s status as a major investor in Georgia and its reliance on Russia’s pipeline network for exporting much of its oil and natural gas, the current conflict between Russia and Georgia is surely causing some worrying in Astana. IWPR’s NBCentralAsia reports on the Kazakhstan’s weighing of allegiances to both Russia and Georgia.
The kicker is whether or not energy becomes an issue in the dispute. Many of those consulted for the story argue that if it does, Kazakhstan will have to side with Russia because it so heavily relies on the Russian pipeline network for not just exports in general but also for exports to Georgia. Russia may, however, play the conflict so that Kazakhstan feels no pressure to intervene.
Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the Mir Yevrazii journal, takes a different view: he believes that Moscow will not introduce energy issues into its dispute with Georgia, so that Kazakstan will be spared from taking sides. “It is unlikely that Russia will stop gas supplies [to Georgia],” said Poletaev. “It has the upper hand at the moment anyway.”
Poletaev goes on to say that he thinks Kazakhstan will refrain from taking sides and continue investing in Georgia, which, given Russia’s lack of serious concern over Kazakhstan’s relationship with NATO, is not likely to upset too many in Moscow.
That Kazakhstan has the potential to play a role in this conflict underscores its emergence as a regional player, while the pressures to stay out of the conflict out of considerations of its reliance on one of the parties underscores that it still has work to do to attain more foreign policy maneuverability. Poletaev says though that were a military conflict between Russia and Georgia to break out, then Kazakhstan could potentially play the tole of peacemaker. It could, however, already play that role by bringing to bear its weight as a major investor in Georgia and ask Saakashvili to kindly refrain from so greatly aggravating Russia.
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Tags: Diplomacy, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia.
Posted by Nathan on October 11th, 2006
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Comments
Time: 10/11/2006, 8:24 pm
I think Kazakhstan’s growing relationship with NATO will come to play in this as well. Russia doesn’t like NATO, and if it feels itself constrained on three sides, it may back off some of its more aggressive policies. Then again, it might lash out.
Time: 10/13/2006, 10:45 am
The other factor that should not be forgotten here is that Astana may also hold a certain pleasure at seeing somebody stick it to Moscow. Kazakh nationalism only goes so far in the country’s relations with Russia, but there remains a certain drive in Kazakhstan to exert its independence of Russia. In the long-term, it is this pride in independence that may make Kazakhstan a significant regional competitor with Russia, at least in the economic sphere.
Time: 10/13/2006, 4:32 pm
Good point, Josh. And certainly, Western countries who may be worried about conflicts with Russia or China down the road should definitely use NATO to assist Kazakhstan to develop some decent military capabilities, or way down the road, maybe even some joint air bases.
Time: 10/14/2006, 8:52 am
[…] So what does Georgia have going for it? Underdog status. Successful democratic revolution. Bullied by Russia and mostly importantly: real estate! Georgia’s betweenness makes it a key gateway for Azeri, Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas headed west and we all know alternative pipelines through Iran and Armenia aren’t going to happen anytime soon not to mention that Iraqi oil won’t be coming online anytime soon (which goes through Turkey). Thus Russia is working to keep Kazakhstan from choosing sides. Yet, despite Kazakh investment in Georgia, they too are in a position to apply pressure to Tbilisi should they feel their investments are in danger. On top of that, the ongoing row between Georgia and Russia is set to hit little Armenia hard which could damage relations and push them further into Russia’s arms. But Armenia is another story. […]
Time: 10/11/2006, 12:02 pm
Very interesting post, Nathan. Yeah, Kazakhstan’s got quite the tricky game to play in Georgia. On the one hand, they’re somewhat finlandized by necessity in foreign policy. On the other, it is in their absolute interest to strengthen pretty much all the “NIS” along the Russian periphery, for obvious reasons…