I cannot help but get the sense from recent reports on Kyrgyzstan that the little leaks in the dam holding back the floodwaters of social unrest are about to start turning into a torrent. To steal a couple lines from David in his comments, revolution may start to look like an annual event in Kyrgyzstan and Moscow may soon rightly have enough of such residents to have its own “former Kyrgyz presidents’ district.”
Just to recap the past couple weeks:
- Courts reversed a decision to bar a criminal from running for parliament after protests demanding he be allowed to run.
- Said criminal, Ryspek Akmatbaev, is alleged to have threatened to kill the country’s elections chief and is now being barred from taking office pending a decision by parliament. (Though, said official admits he is not entirely certain who was threatening him).
- Other protesters had earlier come out demanding that Akmatbaev be barred from entering parliament. UPDATE: And Bakiev handled them curiously differently.
- Bakiev has ordered ministers to quit either their political parties or their jobs, a move that will likely only achieve confrontation
And I’m probably missing some things.
I have to wonder what the bookies in Vegas Kapchagai (well, Almaty for the time being I suppose) have as the line on Bakiev lasting through the summer.
BTW, if you read Russian, be sure to check out Edil Baisalov’s blog.
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There is plenty of dissatisfaction with Bakiev, but I’d be very surprised to see a revolution like last March’s. I get the definite sense that since the revolution didn’t really change anything politically and since the economy is even worse off as a result, that a revoution isn’t in almost anyone’s interest.
I do expect to see more pressure put on Bakiev to make some changes. There are many things he could do that probably wouldn’t endager his position.
I give him at least a year, if not longer, if he continues on as he has been.
Today there was some kind of an assassination attempt on Edil Baisalov, who has been behind the protests against Ryspek. This raises the temperature a few degrees more…
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