Azerbaijan Votes

by Nathan Hamm on 11/3/2005 · 7 comments

Trackback your posts on the election here | Post reports from the media here

Azeris go to the polls to vote in a new parliament on November 6th. Odds are quite good that I will be away until the 7th, so in case I’m not around, visit the following sites.

If you see interesting media coverage, post links in the comments of this post. And if you write a post on the elections or see posts on other blogs, feel free to trackback or leave a link here.

I had intended to summarize the situation, but it’s probably best to just look through past media coverage and posts on this site (if for no other reason than that my brain ain’t working too well right now).

There are a few things worth mentioning that one might not see elsewhere.



IRI conducted a survey of Azeri citizens in June and concluded that a successful candidate will:

  • Be forward thinking and offer their platform as the next step in ensuring Azerbaijan meets its full potential;
  • Focus on Azeri’s everyday concerns –the availability of jobs, the reliability of utilities, and the corruption in basic service providers (education, health care and police) –rather political issues;
  • Be local and address the unique issues and concerns of their region;
  • Have a plan to identify their supporters and make sure they vote;
  • Personally contact as many voters as possible.

Other interesting excerpts from the key findings include the following:

  1. Azeris express a degree of satisfaction with the status quo in the country. While this level of satisfaction may seem at odds with their deep concerns about the economy and living conditions, Azeris base their feelings more on their hopes for the future than their concerns about the current situation.
  2. Parliamentary candidates need to emphasize these issues [quality of basic services and economic issues] when communicating with citizens. While “free and fair elections” are important, the message does not motivate average Azeris.
  3. The reform theme that works with average voters is not “free and fair elections,” but the elimination of corruption.
  4. A majority of Azeris disapprove of the job Parliament is doing and very few citizens believe Parliament or their specific MP shares the same priorities as they do.
  5. In this survey, status quo voters –Azeris who express the highest satisfaction with the direction of the country and government –are significantly more likely to participate in the upcoming election than the citizens who express dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.

Make of all that what you will, but it’s interesting to note as public opinion surveys of this sort rarely get high billing in reporting from the region. Further, I’m told that the results of the poll made it into the hands of both the pro-Aliev camp and the opposition.

In other polling news, BBC Monitoring picked up a story from Azerbaijan’s Gun newspaper predicting a victory for the opposition. There is plenty of information on the national mood, but they report the following on who respondents want to win and who they plan to vote for.

Asked which political party and bloc people want to win the parliamentary election, the respondents answered in the following way: the Azadliq bloc – 29.3 per cent, the New Azerbaijan Party – 26.6, the Yeni Siyasat bloc – 5.4, the Liberal Party – 1.3, other parties – 1.8, independent candidates – 6.5 and none of them – 7.3. Among the respondents 21.8 per cent said that they did not know the answer.

Asked which party or political bloc they will vote for, respondents answered in the way following: the Azadliq bloc – 31.2 per cent, the New Azerbaijan Party – 22.7, the Yeni Siyasat bloc – 6.3, the Liberal Party – 2.5, other parties – 2.6, independent candidates – 16.7, none of them – 2. Sixteen per cent of the respondents said that they did not know the answer.

The above information is from a mid-October poll. Turan released information from the same polling agency from October 21-29.

Q 1. Which political party would you like to win in the parliamentary elections?
The Musavat Party, 24 per cent;
The New Azerbaijan Party, 20 per cent;
The Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, 7 per cent;
The Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan, 7 per cent;
The Liberal Party of Azerbaijan, 4 per cent;
The Communist Party of Azerbaijan, 3 per cent;
None, 10 per cent;
Difficult to answer, 12 per cent.
…
Q 5. Whom will you vote for in the parliamentary elections: candidates from the opposition; candidates from the ruling [New Azerbaijan] party; or, independent candidates? (Questions 5 and 6 were put to 817 people – those respondents who gave a positive answer to Question 4 and intended to vote)
Candidates from the opposition, 47 per cent;
Candidates from the ruling party, 22 per cent;
Independent candidates, 11 per cent;
Does not make any difference, 3 per cent;
It is hard to say, 17 per cent.
…
Q 6. Which political party will you vote for in the parliamentary elections?
The Musavat Party, 26.1 per cent;
The New Azerbaijan Party, 21 per cent;
The Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan, 7.5 per cent;
The Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, 6 per cent;
The Liberal Party of Azerbaijan, 3.2 per cent;
The Communist Party of Azerbaijan; 2 per cent;
None, 3.7 per cent;
It is hard to say, 17.1 per cent.

Additionally, 43% of respondents reported that free elections are possible and that the government is responsible for creating the conditions for them while 34% said that free elections are impossible at the current stage of Azerbaijan’s social development.

Polls of course are far from perfect, so one shouldn’t make too much of this information. But, they most certainly are interesting.

Previous post:

Next post: