As many readers surely know, one of my pet peeves is the claim that the US will stop at nothing to get its hands on Central Asian and Caspian oil and that any failure to do what human rights group x, y, or z says to do is all because of the oil! That’s not to say that it’s not US policy to increase global supply. But it is to say that everytime I hear about long since abandoned plans for US companies to get involved anywhere south of Kazakhstan and east of Azerbaijan I start to froth. (More posts on the subject here.)
One of the reasons why I’m so skeptical of claims of US companies jockeying for access is that there are others in the area in much stronger position–geographically and politically–to get into the game. After losing to China’s CNPC on a bid to buy PetroKazakhstan (who bought the Canadian company after failing to buy Unocal), India is scrambling to secure Central Asian sources for its growing energy needs. Stephen Blank discusses this emerging competition at EurasiaNet.
With its energy requirements skyrocketing, India’s attention is now focused on tapping Iran’s and Turkmenistan’s reserves. According to some estimates, India’s daily oil imports will rise more than three-fold by 2020, from the current level of 1.4 million barrels per day. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is on record as saying; “energy security is second only in our scheme of things to food security.”
In early August, Indian and Iranian officials met to discuss a framework agreement on a gas pipeline that would enable Tehran to export energy via Pakistan. Officials hope to complete work on the framework agreement by the end of the year with the aim of having the envisioned 1,750-mile pipeline built by 2010. Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh is scheduled to make a three-day visit to Iran, starting September 2. The so-called Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline is expected to top the agenda during a planned meeting between Singh and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The IPI would join the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline (proposed by those three countries and supported by the US though it’s not the “Taliban pipeline” that is occasionally discussed) in serving the subcontinent’s energy needs, but the TAP is held up by security concerns (and, according to Blank, concerns about the extent of Turkmen reserves) and Blank says that the IPI stands better chance at being realized.
Additionally, India is interested in replicating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to bring Caspian oil to meet Indian needs.
Shankar, the Indian energy minister, is clearly taken with the idea of duplicating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC) that runs from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, and aims to build an export route connecting India and the Caspian Basin. He also is looking at buying some crude oil from other sources. One of these is the BTC pipeline and another is the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline in Israel, the oil from which can be shipped from the Red Sea to India via the Indian Ocean. He is also exploring natural gas deals from Qatar and evidently wishes to conclude a contract with Azerbaijan for up to 5-6 million tons of oil annually beginning early in 2006.
India is becoming increasingly active in Central Asia, and is often forgotten in discussions of a new Great Game. But, it certainly is worth keeping an eye on especially as it develops a stronger stratetic relationship with the United States.
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