Via Winds of Change, I found Bill Roggio’s argument for a US-India alliance, an idea I love and very occasionally talk about here. Praktike and Nitin Pai have more to add to the discussion.
One of my pet motivations for the closer relationship though is that it would be grand for the United States to have an outside partner in Central Asia that could help us play “good cop, bad cop.” Europe’s interests in Central Asia more or less dovetail with ours, but I get the sense that most European countries couldn’t be bothered to care too much about having a well-defined Central Asia policy, and even those that do suffer from the United States’ problem of being seen by the local regimes as overly committed to human rights.
I don’t doubt for a second that India shares many of our foreign policy concerns in Central Asia, and they are doing a superb job of quietly building extremely warm relations with the governments of the region. Some examples:
- India recently agreed to visa free travel with Tajikistan and is considering the issue with Uzbekistan.
- India is seeking a stake in four Kazakh oilfields and offered to work on the Kazakh-China pipeline and develop petrochemical facilities. The deal isn’t sealed, but Kazakhstan is game.
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization wants cooperation with India, something that would undoubtedly come in handy if India and the US were closer.
- India is exploring gas imports from Turkmenistan via a potential Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline.
- India is cultivating close ties with Afghanistan and has shown a greater interest in stabilizing the country than a couple other neighboring states.
- India has an airbase in Tajikistan.
- India and Uzbekistan are working to increase bilateral trade
I’ve long felt that one of the reasons it is so easy for the US to be blown off by Central Asian governments is that we simply cannot bring investment and trade to the table the way that Russia can. India can and will be a factor in Central Asia–one that can help provide a carrot to the American stick.
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